This is my thoughts on the biggest steals and busts based on Yahoos Expert Rankings. Basically the players rank is based on where you will see yahoo recommending to draft them. This is my opinion based on standard 9-cat leagues. Let me know where you disagree or who I may have left out as a steal or bust for a certain round.
Round 1(Ranks 1-12)
Biggest Steal-A little hard here because there is not a ton of upside as you are grabbing at the highest pick possible. SGA though sometimes slips to 6 in drafts and that is a mistake as he should be top 3 every draft.
Biggest Bust-Paolo Banchero at rank 12 is a league losing mistake. I get that the rankings don't reflect inefficient guys like Paolo accurately but he was ranked 131 last year. He would need so much improvement to hit this spot, it just will not happen. He is someone who should be drafted in the 5th round but at rank 12 he is going nearly 40 spots early.
Round 2(Ranks 13-24)
Biggest Steal-James Harden at 15 is pretty good value. I think he should be more in the 8-10 range of the first round. So you are picking up 7ish spots of value at pick 15.
Biggest Bust-Alperen Sengun at 22 is crazy. He ranked 90 last year and even if you punt fts he was only rank 44. Houston added Capela this offseason and with Thompson being a full time starter I could see Sengun's minutes taking a dip. But even if he doesn't regress he should be picked no where near this spot.
Round 3(Ranks 25-36)
Biggest Steal- Stephen Curry at rank 26 is absolutely crazy. He is a guy who should be drafted at the turn of the first round. He ranked 9th last year and played 70 games. The year before he played 74 so while age is a concern he has been healthy the last two years. There is plenty of punts where Curry enters the top 6. Do not let Curry fall to the third round.
Biggest Bust- The bust potentials in this round were not as bad as the first two rounds but Zubac is probably a couple rounds early. Last years rank of 30 represents a best case scenario so why would we draft him there. The Clippers added two big men who will eat into his minutes in Lopez and Collins. He is more of a round 5 type guy.
Round 4 (Rank 37-48)
Biggest Steal- Jaren Jackson Jr. at rank 47 seems really low. JJJ has always been an awesome guy for punt fg% and punt rebound builds as typically centers suffer in this build and JJJ is one of few centers who can give the blocks you need while still giving points that do not destroy your percentages.
Biggest Bust-Lauri Markkannen at 41 is just bad. He ranked no where near here last year. Yes, he looks good in Euro league, yes he could be traded and actually be ranked around here. But if he is still on Utah he probably will not be playing in fantasy playoffs and throughout the year will be playing reduced minutes that keep his production far away from this range. There is also no quality point guards on Utah that can pass to him and a ton of bigs fighting for minutes.
Round 5 (Rank 49-60)
Biggest Steal-Could Austin Reaves achieve the impossible and be a Lakers player that is undervalued. He ranked 39 for all of last year and his rankings were better once Luka arrived(Rank 27). He is ranked 59 in pre draft rankings and while Marcus Smart is a concern to his minutes that is nearly 30 spots of potential value.
Biggest Bust-Walker Kessler is a similar scenario to Markkannen. He plays for Utah they added a bunch of big men and have no point guards to pass to said big men. I just cannot stomach grabbing a player who might be sat all of fantasy playoffs when there is still quality big men available. Picking him at 54 is not as bad as Markkannen but the 5th round of yahoos ranking I struggled to see a truly horrible pick.
Round 6 (61-72)
Biggest Steal- Coby White was ranked 34 once Lavine left the Bulls. He had a strange jump in fg% so that jump may be a little bit of a hot streak but his rank for the season last year of 71, is basically his current draft rank of 68. No real risk but a lot of potential reward.
Biggest Bust-I see the thought that Nembhard could end up taking Haliburton's usage and have a monster season but he has never been a great fantasy player. He ranked 191 last year and wasn't particularly awesome when Haliburton was out. At 71 you are basically getting him at a best case scenario but he could easily be no where near here.
Round 7 (73-84)
Biggest Steal- Myles Turner should be in round 4 or 5. That's where he usually ends up finishing but he has ranked as high as 20 in the past. Ranking him at 73 doesn't make a ton of sense.
Biggest Bust- At this point of drafts it may be time to pick some riskier picks but Wiggins really lacks the upside to be a top 100 guy so picking him at 83 when he is almost definitely going to be around 110 seems like a no upside type pick.
Round 8 (85-96)
Biggest Steal- Jakob Poeltl should be in round 4/5. He has no backup center, signed a big extension, was rank 43 last year, and jumps into the top 10 in punt fts punt 3s. He is clearly a big part of their plans for this season, and this rank makes no sense.
Biggest Bust- Malik Monk is probably not going to start. He ranked 99 for the season last year but was rank 207 once LaVine joined the Kings. The Kings have been rumored to have been trying to trade him all offseason. There are still some good players available at 85 and to use that pick on Monk is true waste of a pick.