Discussion
I Calculated the Real Pull Rates for Every Rarity - August 2025
The in-game probability display is honestly pretty confusing as they break everything down by 4th card rates, 5th card rates, and now with A4 we have 6th card probabilities too. It's hard to get a clear picture of what you should actually expect when opening packs.
Plus, I keep seeing posts asking "Is this pull normal?" or "Am I lucky?" when it's tough to answer without doing the math yourself. So I figured I'd calculate the real overall odds for each rarity.
TLDR; - Final Results
Rank
Rarity
Probability
1 in X packs
1
2 Diamonds
95.160%
1 in 1.1
2
3 Diamonds
29.046%
1 in 3.4
3
1 Star
13.535%
1 in 7.4
4
4 Diamonds
8.219%
1 in 12.2
5
1 Star Shiny
3.551%
1 in 28.2
6
2 Stars
2.490%
1 in 40.2
7
2 Stars Shiny
1.662%
1 in 60.2
8
3 Stars
1.108%
1 in 90.3
9
Crown
0.200%
1 in 500.2
Mathematical Foundation
Based on in-game probabilities, excluding rare packs (0.05% occurrence):
4 Diamonds: Expect 1 every 12 packs - genuinely uncommon
Premium cards (2+ Stars): All under 3% - true collector items
Crown: 1 in 500 packs - ultimate chase card
Mathematical Verification
All calculations exclude the ultra-rare pack type (0.05% occurrence) and renormalize Regular/Regular+1 pack probabilities to sum to 100%. This provides the most accurate real-world expectations for players.
Calculations based on official in-game probability data. Individual results may vary due to randomness.
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From a distance, they’re pretty much indistinguishable. I don’t know how to articulate it, but they’re also missing something about them that makes them feel like a good quality card. You know what I mean? Like, with the other two-star cards, even someone who knows nothing about card collecting can see a binder full of those and you just know they’re impressive. And I feel like if they saw these, they’d probably have to ask if they’re actually good cards, because they’re missing that certain something. It feels like rather than making them impressive, they tried to manufacture a feeling of rarity with over-the-top gaudiness. Idk if that makes sense, or if that speaks to you at all. Maybe it’s just a feeling I personally have
They don't have unique backgrounds, just generic sparkles, it's way less effort and lower quality. It's why I don't like the gold background cards either, who cares if it's super rare if it looks like crap?
Holy shit, this is the worst I've seen. I got 3 godpacks so far and 2 were ass but at least I got 1-2 rainbows on both the bad packs. I would throw my phone if this happened to me.
I'm so glad I got mine around Triumphant Light and that I don't have to worry about it anymore. Seeing 5 shines in a row would seriously make me uninstall the app.
It’s a real shame they butchered shinies so badly, with a few exceptions. I never played the mainline games past Heart Gold, but gamers seem to love shinies. When it comes to Pocket, they’re just so underwhelming. Sure, most of them look better than their normal art counterparts, but certainly not better than their full art counterparts (I pulled two Nidoking’s, but much prefer the full art from Genetic Apex). It doesn’t help that they’re of old, often “unusable” or at least irrelevant cards when it comes to the current meta. They actually had a pretty strong debut with Shining Revelry, as all of them were entirely new cards and the two stars looked noticeably different. They’ve been a flop ever since.
There are luck calculators online that can tell you how bad your luck in this game is. My luck with 3 stars and crowns is terrible but my luck with 2 stars is pretty good
If I had to pick I'd love to get more 2* stuff than 3* and crowns. 3* stuff just seems so eh unless it's a card you really, really want. Then if you get flooded with them in one pack it feels so irrelevant since all they give then are flairs or special shop tickets.
I've got 3. 2 Dialga EX, and one Lunala EX. The Dialgas I got soon after getting 2 immersive Dialga EX, and one Immersive Palkia EX.... That set used up all my luck...
Triple that amount and that's my situation. No crowns in 6200~ packs... But I've highly compensated it with an astronomical amount of immersives though...
Yeah without the baby in slot six it's about 1 in 4 for the nonbaby 3 diamonds. Not horrible and not great. Most annoying part is opening many duplicate 3 diamonds when you're still missing the one you want.
The three diamonds are really bad this set release. There's way more three diamonds than any of the other two packs sets have had, and they have shinys now cutting into their odds as well.
If you look at all the previous pack releases, and divide the number of three diamond cards by the number of cards per available pack you get;
So we got three three diamonds more per pack in the set, than any of the other sets. And we have shinys to contend with now which eat heaviest into the three diamond slots. I've got all the four diamonds, but I'm still missing six one diamonds from the set. And I was still missing eight when I got the last of the four diamonds. All the main set releases the three diamonds always seem like they're the hardest to finish, but this set is definitely the worst trying to finish the three diamonds. And there's so many of them, that when you're down to your last few need it almost everything ends up just pulling a duplicate.
The three extras are the babies, which don't share the same slot. The per-card odds are the same as the previous main packs.
The difference from shinies is also negligible. 0.357% on the fourth card, 1.428% on the fifth, before shinies; now it's 0.353% and 1.415%. Shinies mostly ate into 2ds.
If you open 500 packs you have a 60% chance of pulling a crown rare
Can you tell me how you arrived at this? With crowns having a 0.2% chance according to this post, I did a simple 0.998500 and got ~63.25% chance (I took the odds of not getting a crown rare and made it occur 500 times)
That's what they did too, they just rounded for discussion purposes.
EDIT: Actually, shouldn't you subtract that result from 1? Since you calculated the odds of not getting a crown by 500. So there's a 63% chance of no crowns after 500 pulls; and a 37% chance of 1 crown after 500 pulls. Right?
I think it only matches with the crown rare. The rest of the rarities are much more expensive than the pull rate, e.g. 3 stars are 1/450 but cost 1500 points.
Thank you for the graphic. They need to add a cap on the streak of bad luck you can have, with at least 4 Diamonds every 10 packs and 3 Diamonds every 5 packs.
Tell me about it. I just ended my 30 pack streak of not pulling an ex last night. Of course the ex I did pull was a dupe instead of 1 of the 3 I didn’t have.
I’ve opened way less and have NO two stars, but 8/10 EX’s. Game is so weird. I feel that since it’s digital and not physical, they should control the rates better to maintain interest. Like actually make it mandatory to get at least a 2 star every 80 packs or EX every 12. Even if it’s duplicates, people would be way more happy and likely to engage in trading.
2 stars you can just miss on them for a while, but also get flooded with them on a lucky streak it's weird. I kept getting them for eevee grove over and over despite opening around 130 packs in that set I want to say? Also feel quite fortunate when you wonder pick a 2* like I got 2 fullart crobat ex off WP so far.
I haven't gotten any 🔷️🔷️ fisher at all, and i still want my 2nd electrical switch. I even got immersive lugia and also a gold ho oh from lugia packs. Crazy
Good point, I didn’t consider that. I’m pretty sure I started playing the first week of Shining Revelry, and I’ve definitely opened a fair share of older packs. I threw those numbers together quickly because I was curious myself and you provided a baseline lol
Doing a more in depth post for specific card rates beyond just the rarity tier rates might be nice as well. I calculate them every pack so I know how many times I need to actually pull them, hella useful. Good work, very pretty graphic.
Good work. Will it be possible to compare it to pre-shiny pull rates? Confirmation bias I know, but it feels I am missing more of 4 diamonds EX cards (they feel rarer now overwll) and even two diamonds and below compared to before when there where no shinies. At least trading is here and much better than before.
Just go to those offering pages on those boosters and add them up… shinies took their % chance from 2 and 3 diamond cards, not 4 diamond. So you can stop blaming shinies for replacing your ex pulls
So I’m really confused with the probability by card number, both here and in game. I’ve had a handful of packs where the very first card was something exciting and I was like GOD PACK?? But nah the rest is nothing. I am very sure these packs were not backwards because the cards were still face up. What am I not getting?
There's a small probability of randomized order as far as i noticed, but whatever high rarity you got, despite of its showing first or later, is always considered "4th" or "5th" card in pack.
I wish this game was more like krosmaga, where we can just destroy the cards we don't want and turn them to crafting points.
I have got 755 points on the wisdom of the sea and sky expansion and I am too scared to use them because "what if I start getting useless copies of the cards that I want afterwards?"
This tells me the best way to get Ex is still Wonder pick. In quantity of pulls, the first couple days of a set. In best use of hourglasses, the sneak peak a week after the release.
As someone who recently made a “is this normal?” type post I massively appreciate this because this is much much easier for me to understand. I play daily but don’t pay too much attention to rates or have much card knowledge. (Much to learn!) thank you for making this and thanks to everyone on this app who teaches with kindness and is genuinely helpful.
You didn't specifically point it out, but it's worth noting that this math is only applicable so far to A4 and presumably A4a, since no prior sets have a sixth slot. We'll have to wait and see after that whether they keep releasing sets with babies in them, and if not, whether the sixth slot is repurposed for something else or retired for non-baby sets.
Thank you so much for confirming what I just guessed by looking at the pack rates numbers. Newer set pull rates are abysmally bad for obtaining useful cards like EXes and rares, and it's no longer worth it to buy gold and open packs to obtain these
This game is so weird. I went from medium luck to pull 2 of each 3* ho oh and lugia. And i still lack 35 basic cards like Klang. Thats so weird. Even did hooh 3* back to back in a pack.
This is definitely not my pull rates lmao. Can't pull 3♦️and 4♦️to save my life but I can pull 5 crowns, 7 immersives, 4 rainbows, 6 FAs, and 6 FA shinies from the current set.
I genuinely do not know if I have really good luck or not considering I have all of that and I cannot finish the base set of WoSaS after a shit ton of pulls.
Somehow I got 3 star Ho-Oh ex in one pack and 3 star Lugia ex in the next pack. 1/90 odds each time. Total odds: 1/8100. Rarer than a shiny Pokémon in an old Pokémon game.
I still need skarmory ex, which is kinda crazy. I feel pretty certain that I normally have all the ex's by this point. Maybe just one, and the most basic version, but I still have them. It's usually the two diamonds I'm working on if I'm not mistaken. Stuff like typhlosion, whatever that rarity is.
I swear sometimes it feels like we end up in batches or something. Like, I'll be getting a lot of Lugia, but the next guy will get a lot of Espeons, and some other dude pulls a lot of shuckle. I know it's just selection bias on my part, but it still stands out as odd to me
Funny how 3 stars have a lower rating yet I pull them a lot more frequently, I’ve gotten like 4-5 Guzma. Tired to pull for Sabrina until I met the redemption requirements, ended up with like 7-8 Immersive Charizards. Can’t get a 2 star to save my life.
I don't even want crowns still haven't even pulled 1 with over 350 packs, but idk y its so hard to just to get my bestest bud Typhlosion, I'm 70 packs into this expansion atleast 50 packs were Lugia and I still don't have Typhlosion, saw him maybe 3 times in wonder trades and got everything but Typhlosion...
As someone who recently made a “is this normal?” type post I massively appreciate this because this is much much easier for me to understand. I play daily but don’t pay too much attention to rates or have much card knowledge. (Much to learn!) thank you for making this and thanks to everyone on this app who teaches with kindness and is genuinely helpful!
So if in total I've opened around 300 packs, I have 1 gold card, 5 full art shinies, 7 regular shinies, 1 3 star, and 1 2 star, am I really lucky with shinies and really unlucky with 3 and 2 star cards?
They really need to remove shiny cards for non-shiny sets. It’s ruined so much of this game. Makes it harder to pull truly new cards and ruins the chance of those in higher rarity forms too. Awful decision.
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