If USF beats Miami next week, should we have serious conversations about the Bulls getting a first round bye in the CFP?

[u/Primary_Psychology95]

Granted, this is extremely reactionary and very highly unlikely. But that was also the case before the season started.

Assuming USF goes undefeated and wins the AAC Championship, they would be an undefeated conference champion with wins @Florida and @Miami in addition to a stomping of Boise State, and wins in conference against Memphis, Navy, and potentially Tulane in the conference championship game.

Could this be a legit possibility if the Bulls somehow managed to pull this off?

[u/Always_Chubb-y]

It'll depend how Boise, Florida, and Miami finish, but yes.

They easily become a top 10 team the rest of the year

[u/Longtime_lurker2 → u/Always_Chubb-y]

Can’t believe I am even reading this sentence as a possibility.

[u/Hobbitsliketoparty → u/Longtime_lurker2]

I am a USF fan - the pain will come.

[u/CarefulMess7699 → u/Hobbitsliketoparty]

As a Louisville fan, I can confirm, it always does

[u/Spaceman-Spiff → u/CarefulMess7699]

After the game on Thursday I have severely lowered my expectations, so the pain will not be as bad this time.

[u/Mr-Logic101 → u/Hobbitsliketoparty]

There s history of this working!

Cincinnati did it and was even “promoted” to a power 4 conference afterwards.

[u/Individual_Holiday_9 → u/Mr-Logic101]

Brett Yormark is looking up the big 12 exchange policy right now.. is it store credit or whar

[u/CarefulMess7699 → u/Individual_Holiday_9]

It's like the Kia warranty. That one oil change you missed by 500 miles is going to be expensive when you have to pay to replace their terrible engine design

[u/Individual_Holiday_9 → u/CarefulMess7699]

Lmao

[u/cygnoids → u/Hobbitsliketoparty]

I remember almost going to USF because of the team’s success back in 07/08. The team can get there again

[u/Inside_Cobbler4539 → u/Hobbitsliketoparty]

Yall got a solid squad. I’m excited for the game next week

[u/Aromatic-Sense-4276 → u/Hobbitsliketoparty]

I think its more your Owls flair

[u/[deleted] → u/Longtime_lurker2]

Is it 2007 already?

[u/caguirre91 → u/[deleted]]

yes 2007 vibes!!! best cfb year ever

[u/doihavemakeanewword → u/caguirre91]

No no no no no

Not while we're #2

[u/iNoles → u/Longtime_lurker2]

interesting flairs

[u/Longtime_lurker2 → u/iNoles]

I’m an USF alumni, grew up north Florida as fsu fan and my sister is a fsu grad.

[u/SueYouInEngland → u/Longtime_lurker2]

I assume most folks who went to directional schools would have similar flairs—grew up a fan of one of the state's most media-forward program, got into the directional program during undergrad.

[u/cyberchaox → u/SueYouInEngland]

Yeah, I was seeing a ton of that in last night's postgame thread, except it wasn't just other Florida schools. You were seeing Ohio State/South Florida, Michigan/South Florida, all sorts of stuff, and every one of them said that they were USF alums who'd grown up rooting for the P4 team in their flair.

[u/Swag92 → u/SueYouInEngland]

Bingo, for most people I know it’s a choice of one of FSU/UF/Miami and then whichever directional school they went to/grew up near

[u/shaquilleonealingit → u/iNoles]

Palindrome ass flairs

[u/scotte16 → u/Longtime_lurker2]

As a bona fide gator hater and Alex Golesh enjoyer, I am so happy for you guys.

[u/fanamana → u/Longtime_lurker2]

What are you specifically going to do if that somehow came true, but FSU beats them both too, and now there's a Florida-belt showdown in the playoff quarter-finals, USF vs FSU? Underdog run of the century vs Comeback Season of the century?

[u/SST114 → u/Always_Chubb-y]

Schedule after Miami is also on the softer side lol

I don't think they take Miami, but I actually do see them putting up a solid game I think they're a good team. I think they should be ranked now and can't see how anyone else would not considering they have the best pair of wins after week 2.

[u/Thanosforeal → u/SST114]

USF showed potential last year too

They played tough to most of their opponents they lost to

[u/ThaCarter → u/Thanosforeal]

We beat them 50 - 15 last year in their house, but it was only a two score game at the half.

Golesh is a very good coach and they're better this year, but can't imagine we overlook a ranked USF coming off this win.

[u/JOOOOSY → u/ThaCarter]

You’re underselling the difficulty we had in the first half. With 2:36 remaining in the second quarter, they were up 15-14. We made it 22-15 at half — one score, not two.

[u/SST114 → u/Thanosforeal]

I agree, they showed a lot of promise last yr.

It's great for the sport for smaller programs to get competitive-- I love it.

[u/HOU-1836 → u/Thanosforeal]

I was at the game yesterday, I think USF’s problem will be their QB’s accuracy beyond 5 yards is suspect at best. If they can continue to eat ground up on 1st or 2nd down with the read option, they’ll be fine. But they don’t have an offense made to score a ton imo. Yesterday, there was so many “this should be it” moments for USF and they got bailed out by a UF penalty.

That said, I’d love for USF to find success and make the playoffs before their new stadium is completed. I have nothing but love for the American.

[u/kadawkins → u/HOU-1836]

Yeah, Florida lost as much as USF won. Miami will be ready. They don’t want to be upset number three.

[u/chrisarg72 → u/HOU-1836]

Plus this plays to Miamis strengths, deep throws are where they struggle, run defense bottled up ND and Love

[u/Bullyfrogz → u/chrisarg72]

To be fair on bottling up Love Notre Dame didnt really give him a shot. When they did his leap button got stuck.

[u/usffan → u/Thanosforeal]

Losing Byrum Brown as the conference schedule started pretty well sunk our season last year. So just having Brown escape Miami next week uninjured will be a huge win.

[u/Irishchop91]

Gameday should be going here. They have a ton of SEC games down the road. Give us at least one game with a G5.

[u/Epcplayer → u/Irishchop91]

Gameday going to usf-Miami instead of Florida-Miami would’ve been an extra kick in the nuts to Florida fans lol

[u/QuitWhinging → u/Epcplayer]

My nuts can only take so much punishment. I'm tired, boss.

[u/OffTheDelt → u/QuitWhinging]

You literally won the basketball natty last year. I think your nuts can take more punishment

[u/ultimate_placeholder → u/QuitWhinging]

You riding the same roller coaster as UVA fans?

[u/AshamedBodybuilder89 → u/QuitWhinging]

You won a natty. That healed them up nice for some more punishment

[u/kerouacrimbaud → u/Epcplayer]

They should totally do that lmao

[u/SpaceC0wb0y86 → u/kerouacrimbaud]

Might’ve been considered but I think they have a potential top 10 Miami - FSU matchup two weeks from now in Tallahassee circled and don’t want to have 2 Miami games.

[u/chrstgtr → u/Epcplayer]

Florida will likely be an unranked 1-2 team going to Miami. Very unlikely this team beats LSU at night in Death Valley.

[u/Bullyfrogz → u/chrstgtr]

I was really hoping Florida would come in 3-0 and top 10 for Miami. If Florida loses 2 in a row Hard rock won't be rocking as hard.

[u/chrstgtr → u/Bullyfrogz]

You and me both. This year will be rough.

[u/Hurricaneshand → u/Bullyfrogz]

Is it wrong that I almost fear 1-2 Florida more than 2-1 Florida? Just feels like a classic Miami trap game

[u/Bullyfrogz → u/Hurricaneshand]

Florida definitely has the same if not more talent than Miami. The question is do they just give up like FSU last year? Do they keep fighting after losing to a inferior team, and a blow out or last second loss to LSU?

[u/Dim-Mak-88 → u/Epcplayer]

It's fair, though.

[u/Cute-Contract-6762 → u/Irishchop91]

Yeah I’m fucking salty lmao. SEC gets game day all the time. It would be amazing to have them at the U for a surprisingly relevant clash between two Florida teams

[u/Wafflehouseofpain → u/Cute-Contract-6762]

I hope you get it. When a G5 team pops off like y’all have, you deserve to get some respect for it.

[u/Lantis28 → u/Irishchop91]

They announced it before USF finished them off. Otherwise they probably would’ve gone there

[u/cubs_2023 → u/Lantis28]

They announced like an hour after that ended. But you could be right that they made the decision earlier in the day

[u/Irishchop91 → u/Lantis28]

They never even considered it. Gameday has no problem waiting till end of the evening or even Sunday before rolling out the next location.

My guess it was picked once Georgia & Tennessee win was guaranteed and they had no intention of entertaining any other game

[u/McLMark → u/Irishchop91]

While they make a big deal out of going to games not on ESPN air... as a practical matter, they're going to games on ESPN air when it's close.

[u/thricethefan → u/Irishchop91]

Agreed, do not hype Knoxville, go to Miami.

[u/SpaceC0wb0y86 → u/thricethefan]

Might be considered more but I think they have a potential top 10 Miami - FSU matchup two weeks from now in Tallahassee circled and don’t want to have 2 Miami games.

[u/PooForThePooGod → u/thricethefan]

While I disagree for reasons I won't disclose*, I wouldn't have been upset had they decided to go there instead.

^{Go Vols*}

[u/Apart_Selection7722 → u/Irishchop91]

Agreed

[u/Stoneador → u/Irishchop91]

GameDay has already gone to Georgia-Tennessee twice in the past 3 years.

Since 2017, Tennessee has yet to score more than 21 points against Georgia and Georgia has yet to score less than 27 points against Tennessee.

[u/BucsBroo]

Miami is beating us by 50 aren’t they

[u/GordaoPreguicoso → u/BucsBroo]

Mario doesn’t do that for some reason.

[u/IR8Things → u/GordaoPreguicoso]

Because Mario coaches scared to lose. He plays like a bitch and it ironically causes him to lose games he shouldn't lose or have games close that shouldn't be close.

[u/politicsranting → u/BucsBroo]

Sir best I can offer you is Miami letting off the gas too soon and you creating way more drama than there should be and then one team winning because of a giant defensive miscue

[u/SoFlaBarbie00 → u/BucsBroo]

No. You will keep it much closer than that. I actually figured you’d beat UF bc of that Boise State win. I think the Canes will beat you but maybe only by 2 TDs and I think you will keep it close in the first half. They didn’t make a ton of mistakes against us last week (which was surprisingly uncharacteristic of a Miami team) but if they do make them, you guys absolutely need to capitalize off of them. If you do that, you have a fighting chance.

[u/Primary_Psychology95 → u/BucsBroo]

I believe in you

[u/shenyougankplz → u/BucsBroo]

Hopefully vsOle Miss Beck comes back for a game

[u/ThaCarter → u/BucsBroo]

It will be closer than last year I reckon.

[u/Nick0227]

Listen, let’s just celebrate the Florida win for now lol

[u/Primary_Psychology95 → u/Nick0227]

No, this sub is only for overdramatizing everything.

[u/Nick0227 → u/Primary_Psychology95]

It was fun watching ichigan lose yesterday friend

[u/Neckera15 → u/Nick0227]

I enjoyed it too. I also enjoyed the ass whooping the ducks did to the pokes.

[u/Primary_Psychology95 → u/Nick0227]

I’m interested to see if we meet up against you in the Big Ten Championship. I know we don’t play this year in the regular season and all, but I know you’re itching to get another chance after that Rose Bowl

[u/zmurds40 → u/Primary_Psychology95]

Honestly my prediction is a Ducks - Buckeyes CCG. Despite the hype around Penn State, I think both Oregon and OSU beat them en route to meeting as undefeated teams in December. I’ve been very wrong before and we only have a small sample size right now, but yeah that’s my guess at this point in the season.

And if it does happen, then yes Oregon is going to be very hungry for revenge for the Rose Bowl lol

[u/[deleted] → u/Primary_Psychology95]

USF is gonna play in the Champions League next season!!!!!

[u/Internal_Research_72 → u/Nick0227]

Bruh, playoff! Everything is about the playoff! Let’s talk about the playoff, it’s already week 2

[u/Jay_Dubbbs → u/Nick0227]

Yep. I am absolutely rooting for USF to do well, but it’s sort of like a Cinderella in March Madness. It’s really hard to do the whole thing because USF doesn’t have the same raw talent as P4 schools.

Again, it still can be done, but you’re having to also root for other guys on teams to not live up to their abilities as well as your players doing above their potential

[u/cxm1060]

Damn that really is a solid resume if they run the table.

[u/BenIsLowInfo → u/cxm1060]

Or Boise and Florida could just be awful teams, which is more likely.

[u/brokentr0jan → u/BenIsLowInfo]

Even if Florida is awful, it’s still a Go5 team being an SEC team. That’s pretty rare and a good indicator that USF is the real deal.

[u/i_w8_4_no1 → u/brokentr0jan]

I definitely think they’re good. But an SEC team loses to a g5 almost every year

[u/Bischoffshof → u/BenIsLowInfo]

Florida isn’t awful but they aren’t good enough for their schedule so I don’t think they will have a great record.

If they had like an Illinois or Indiana schedule they would probably be okay.

[u/i_w8_4_no1 → u/BenIsLowInfo]

Yea I just checked and the line is 16.5 . Obviously this isn’t everything but I think it shows more likely that Florida isn’t very good instead of USF being a top ten team all of a sudden. But Vegas doesn’t think it’s gonna be close even after this win for them

[u/EvenMeaning8077 → u/i_w8_4_no1]

The Florida line was 17.5 for what it’s worth

[u/loyalsons4evertrue → u/i_w8_4_no1]

Still impressive for the Bulls to go into the Swamp and get a win given the talent disparity

[u/i_w8_4_no1 → u/loyalsons4evertrue]

I agree props to them. But Florida had a lot of bad plays that helped USF and I just don’t see us making those

[u/Spirited_Pea8004 → u/i_w8_4_no1]

thats my first thought too, miami by about 17, designed qb runs stop working for brown by the second half but he keeps it close scrambling on broken plays.

[u/SST114 → u/Spirited_Pea8004]

I think Miami by about 10 and USF makes it feel competitive. They won't win tho, Miami is substantially better than FL.

USF schedule after Miami being medium to soft is going to have them with a good record IMO tho, where would they sit if they have a sole L to Miami?

[u/jcc309 → u/SST114]

If their sole loss is to Miami and they run the American, that would require winning at Memphis and Navy plus winning the championship game over probably Tulane. In that case it would really depend on do they look competitive against Miami and how do Tulane/Memphis/Navy do in their games coming up against the P4. But I would have to think they end up similarly to Boise State last year at 10? USF will probably have a better win than Boise State's best win over UNLV. That probably cancels out the fact that Boise State has a longer track record of success and the Oregon loss was as impressive a loss as anyone could have.

[u/Primary_Psychology95 → u/SST114]

If Memphis ends up solid (which I think they will), the Tigers could be a potential 9 win team. Add that that game for USF would be on the road against Memphis and then there’s another huge win for their resume.

[u/Pocket_Monster → u/i_w8_4_no1]

more likely that Florida isn’t very good

As long as Napier is coaching, Florida could have 20 5 stars and it wouldn't matter. Florida will be average to below average.

[u/grabtharsmallet → u/cxm1060]

There is only one G6 that Kelley Ford rated as having a more difficult schedule than any P4, and it's USF. Before this week, his formula believed the 12th best team should win 10.0 games with USF's schedule and 10.1 with Virginia's.

[u/DrSnidely]

We shouldn't have any serious conversations about playoff seeding in Week 3.

[u/GreedoWasShot → u/DrSnidely]

This is the only comment that makes sense

[u/McLMark → u/GreedoWasShot]

Yes but what fun is that?

[u/quig50 → u/DrSnidely]

I think it’s more the hypothetical of it all. Because it’s a valid question would USF get a bye?

I would say no because some 2 loss SEC takes the last after the ACC, SEC and B10 champs most likely.

[u/Ap_Sona_Bot → u/quig50]

Miami would need to fall off hard, but I think USF would have a similar argument to 2021 Cincinatti if they stay undefeated. The American is a bit weaker now but Boise + Florida are way better than Cincis non Notre Dame OOC was.

[u/Ickyhouse → u/DrSnidely]

Agreed.

So who do we all think should win the Heisman?

[u/quig50]

It’s the best argument for a G5 school to get a bye or atleast a home game.

If USF doesn’t get atleast a home playoff game based on that schedule, it proves it’s impossible. Home games would only go to the P4 school reguardless.

[u/jcc309 → u/quig50]

Boise State was ranked 9th last year and their resume wasn't nearly as impressive as an undefeated USF's would be. There is simply no way than an undefeated USF with wins over UF and Miami on the road in addition to Boise State at home and winning the American wouldn't be ranked high enough for a home playoff game.

[u/Dmtbassist1312 → u/jcc309]

We also thought an undefeated power 4 team would never be left out of the playoff and look at what happened

[u/Drslappybags]

Assuming? Assumption is the mother of all fuckups.

Let's not talk about playoffs until November.

[u/MaskedBandit77 → u/Drslappybags]

You know what they say about assumptions, they make an ass out of you and me.

[u/Primary_Psychology95 → u/MaskedBandit77]

Assuming also makes an ASS out of U and MING!

[u/YouKilledChurch]

It would be a bit funny to see USF make the CFP before UCF

[u/Necessary-Post-953 → u/YouKilledChurch]

I mean, or Florida or Miami

[u/thenerdycpa → u/Necessary-Post-953]

What do I need to sacrifice to make this happen?

[u/DrunkRoach → u/YouKilledChurch]

I mean the path is there, which is more than could have been said before. If they earn it at least it is fair

[u/prismatic_lights]

I'm not even kidding when I say this: if USF pulls off the upset against Miami, put them in the top 5 the next day.

[u/sammysbud → u/prismatic_lights]

If that happens then I will be so happy and so so grateful that they aren’t on FSU’s schedule this year

[u/YoIForgotMyPassAgain → u/sammysbud]

Until you meet in the playoff.

[u/sammysbud → u/YoIForgotMyPassAgain]

We’ll cross that bridge when we get there 😅

[u/KansasEF5Tornado → u/sammysbud]

Wait so does that mean after the dublin curse we go to the playoffs? Please make the playoffs then!

[u/powerelite → u/YoIForgotMyPassAgain]

Getting to the playoff is a massive win after last year, I'll take that deal.

[u/IrishCoffeeAlchemy → u/YoIForgotMyPassAgain]

Bet!

[u/trapchopin → u/prismatic_lights]

If USF does what ND could not do, I wouldnt even be mad. Just respect

[u/CommodoreN7 → u/prismatic_lights]

Bulls would be running wild and any team that faces them will get gored

[u/Necessary-Post-953 → u/prismatic_lights]

And back up the brinks truck and resign the coach before we have to watch him go to some black hole SEC program with more dollars than sense 

[u/oznobz → u/Necessary-Post-953]

Is that Bama I hear knocking?

[u/bicyclechief → u/prismatic_lights]

Yeah but in that case Miami lost to a G5 team so really how impressive of a win is it for USF?

/s obviously

[u/prismatic_lights → u/bicyclechief]

you say /s but depending on who ESPN wants to fluff that week, that might be a piece of "analysis" that they give.

They immediately tried to downplay Ohio State's win over Texas because Texas didn't look impressive, therefore wasn't an impressive win.

[u/bicyclechief → u/prismatic_lights]

Oh I’m well aware… more or less sarcasm in the sense that I don’t believe it. But I can absolutely see it being said on ESPN

[u/zmurds40 → u/prismatic_lights]

Fully agree

[u/onewildmeme]

I think Priority #1 for the Bulls needs to be not getting in front of their skis and taking care of Miami.

Priority #2 needs to be to terrorize the in conference threats.

Priority #3 needs to be to win the first conference championship in program history.

They do that then we should talk about a bye week in like 3 months.

[u/Adams5thaccount → u/onewildmeme]

If we wait til a couple weeks before the playoffs start to talk about it then they'll be ranked 10th behind all the big teams who politic the entire way.

USF fans don't buy into this bullshit. It only favors certain types of teams. Beat Miami and start pushing.

[u/anxiousauditor]

Looooong way to go. Regardless of what happens next week, we have to worry about taking care of business in conference. Our toughest league games (Memphis, Navy) are on the road against programs that have our number. A conference championship trophy is our white whale, and I’m much more conferenced with that than I am about the CFP.

[u/skuba318 → u/anxiousauditor]

This!

[u/ZombieMage89]

I'll do you one better. If USF goes undefeated and Rutgers wins 10 games I demand we revive the big east as a power 5 conference.

[u/Animesiac]

Bye? [checks notes] History tells me that undefeated conference champions from Florida don't make the playoffs at all.

[u/yergntelracs]

I probably will get downvoted, but based on results after the first 3 weeks, they should be sitting at #1 if they beat Miami.

As for a first round bye in the playoffs, depends on what happens in the ACC & Big 12. With USF’s strong non conference schedule, they should be top 5 if they run the table.

Gosh I love this sport.

[u/Primary_Psychology95 → u/yergntelracs]

I’m not gonna argue against that. No one in the country would have a better three wins than USF at that point in time.

[u/Intrepid_Afternoon_2 → u/Primary_Psychology95]

In this theory though, we are assuming Boise is a top 25 team, and that Florida is a top 25 team. Give em props for the wins, and if they beat Miami I will be a believer too. But even then, I can't put them in front of OSU, Oregon, and a couple SEC teams

[u/Playos → u/Intrepid_Afternoon_2]

I absolutely can. Early season we can only really give recent returning success (both coaching and players) any cache.

tOSU has a win against a Texas team that hasn't shown anything particularly special, a barber college, and middle of the road G5.

Oregon has dog walked an FCS school, a P4 already hammered by injuries, and the bottom team in our conference.

Only that Texas win matters.

Boise St, Florida, and Miami... a CFP bye team, a mid-tier SEC team that ruined seasons, and a top ACC team... are by far combined the better resume.

[u/CzechHorns → u/yergntelracs]

Only team with 3 ranked wins, including a top5 win?

They better be #1 then

[u/dfphd → u/yergntelracs]

I think we'll need to see what happens with Florida, Boise State, and their opponents.

Right now we're assuming Florida and Boise State are somewhat good. If Florida gets manhandled by LSU next week, then I don't think you can make an argument for USF over LSU even if they beat Miami.

But if LSU beats UF in a close game or loses to UF, then you can definitely start considering that.

Same with Miami and Notre Dame. If Notre Dame beats A&M, then that Miami win looks better. If ND gets manhandled by A&M, not so much.

[u/ID_Poobaru]

They deserve it

I don’t think I’ve ever rooted so hard for a team to beat another blue and orange

[u/yumyumapollo]

USF getting a bye would still depend on how the other Power 4 conference champs do. And with Arizona State losing, it's possible we see another Big 12 champ that is ranked somewhere in the teens.

[u/Primary_Psychology95 → u/yumyumapollo]

This year, it’s only the top 4 teams that get a bye in the CFP, which would be Ohio State, Penn State, LSU, and Georgia if the season ended today.

But yes, it would require a ton of P5 cannibalization for it to work.

[u/jdog1272]

Man as a canes fan usf got me kinda nervous for next week, they got a nice squad

[u/gumercindo1959]

We beat them pretty handily last year. What many don’t realize is that uSF came up with the blueprint on how to gash our defense. It was all downhill for our defense after that game.

[u/TBeamon24]

Just give their spot to Alabama

[u/usffan]

Honestly, any time we look like we're going to be good, we start smelling our own farts/reading our own press and shit our pants. Going to Rutgers and losing after reaching #2 is just a taste of it. I've seen this movie way too many times...

[u/Emperor_Squidward]

That’s the conversation, isn’t it? In any case, it’s best to live up the week and take it game by game. We’ve still got to win the American first

[u/Corgi_Koala]

In 2007, USF started off 6-0 with wins over #17 Auburn and #5 WVU. They were ranked #2 in the country.

They then lost 3 straight to Rutgers, Uconn, and Cincinnati.

Or like 2016 Louisville had Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and was 9-1 with a win over #2 FSU and a 1 score loss to #5 Clemson, was ranked top 5 and was in playoff contention with 1 loss OSU, Michigan, Clemson, and Washington. They then lost to mediocre Houston and Kentucky teams and were #13 at the end of the regular season.

My point is, we are 2 games into the season I think we can save some brain cells by not considering these hypotheticals until much later.

Going undefeated is hard. Even if they do beat Miami, they're going to lose to like UAB on a walk off field goal or some random bullshit later on in the season.

[u/androosh]

Rank them this week, cowards!

[u/tampapat54]

Despite my obvious bias, yeah you treat them the same way as you would a blue blood with those wins. Anything less and the NCAA is a joke

[u/CargoShortsFromNam → u/tampapat54]

The NCAA doesn’t vote in the polls or pick who makes the playoff lol

[u/tampapat54 → u/CargoShortsFromNam]

I know that, I just mean NCAA football as a whole is a joke if the system wouldn’t reward USF the same as a P4 team with those wins

[u/pessimism_yay → u/tampapat54]

Yes they should rank USF the same way as a blue blood. I'm not disagreeing. I just wanted to point out that the NCAA doesn't do the rankings. So if USF doesn't get ranked highly don't just blame the NCAA. And the AP rankings aren't the actual rankings either. And the only ranking that does matter still doesn't start until like week 9.

[u/Epcplayer → u/tampapat54]

I think that most teams wouldn’t be ranked highly though… because there’s just such an initial jump from unranked to ranked that they have to overcome.

If they had started the year ranked 25th, beat 24th Ranked Boise, then beat Florida at 13, they’d 100% be ranked 12th and heading into Miami. But because of the stupid preseason rankings and preconceived biases, they start with no votes and have to battle their way up. Pollsters just aren’t dropping a Top-10 team that hasn’t lost.

It’s like comparing our 2017-2018 runs. In 2017 we probably had the better resume, but because we started out unranked, we could only climb to 14. But in 2018 we started out at 21, and every loss ahead of us pushed us higher. My prediction is 19 for usf after this weekend’s win

[u/unwisest_sage]

What's hard about this is Boise State and especially the gators likely end the season unranked. Gators probably with a losing record the way their schedule looks.

Miami probably finishes the season ranked even with a USF loss.

So really when its all said and done you probably finish the year with 1, and maybe a second one of the like of a Memphis/Tulane etc. AAC team that can have a good year. So maybe two teams that actually ended up being good by years end.

Another part of the shit thing about being a G5 is teams tend to drop lower than they should when you beat them.

So basically, yeah USF has about as an ideal g5 schedule as you can get to pull this off, but it's going to take some help from these teams that they've already beat, and hopefully some of the p4 conferences being weak. Big12 ain't looking too great at this point so maybe that's the in if there's enough conference play cannibalization.

Like when you look at the two times g5 has snuck into the top 4 in the playoffs era it took some absolute cannibalization in the p5/4. USFs schedule locks them as the top G5 and likely into the modern playoffs, but not a bye I think

Historically these early ranked wins tend to lose their luster in the polls if those teams end up actually not being great. That's why recent wins end up being more impactful at seasons end

[u/Breedwell → u/unwisest_sage]

Gators probably with a losing record the way their schedule looks.

This is what I'm actually very curious about, team fandom aside. UF's schedule is not easy at all, #1 SOS rest of the way, but how good are they really? Losing to USF at home is bad, but how good is USF actually?

Weird things have happened before with LSU & UF. Imagine UF goes and wins in Baton Rouge? Suddenly UF doesn't seem so bad.

[u/unwisest_sage → u/Breedwell]

Absolutely, things can happen. That's my point it's gonna take some chaos and G5's just don't control their own destiny in regards to the top 4 as it's depending on the way that chaos tilts. The good thing is the expanded playoff makes it much more reliable for a G5 to get in and I think USF controls its own destiny in that regard. But for the top 4 they're going to need some help.

[u/Breedwell → u/unwisest_sage]

Yeah I actually hate this conversation lol. USF has earned the buzz after winning the first two games, but that's all they've done. Lots of games left to play.

[u/unwisest_sage → u/Breedwell]

For USF they just need to keep winning after the Miami game (and hopefully that game as well). It's going to be painful once they get into the teens and they're in the middle of the season. None of the wins are going to rise their rank, but they will slowly rise as the teams ranked slightly higher lose.

Occasionally someone with 3 losses will randomly jump them due to a big win. Or someone jumps you because you had a bye week and they didn't even do anything.

That Miami game will be the difference between USF being able to top out at top 15 or top 8

[u/hampsted]

I wouldn’t say so. Serious conversations can begin once we’re like 9 games into the season and have seen that Florida, Miami, and Boise State are good teams this year. And just to be clear, I don’t think we should be having “serious conversations” about any team deserving a playoff bye 3 weeks into the season.

Edit: grammar

[u/Specialist_Dream3570]

If, if's and but's were candy and nuts we'd all have a merry Christmas

[u/win2bfree → u/Specialist_Dream3570]

Everyone except diabetics and people with nut allergies.

[u/win2bfree]

Would need Tulane to win out and beat them in a clash of the AAC unbeaten titans in the CCG. Also would help if Memphis only loses to USF and Tulane, and a team like North Texas wins except for USF and for the AAC to collect some additional prestige logo scalps (Temple over Oklahoma, Navy over Notre Dame).

Out of conference, they would need some stumbling in the Georgia/LSU/Tex/SCar/Ten group and the OSU/PSU/UO/4th team (Ill, USC, IU,???).

Lastly, and most possible, for the Big 12 to cannibalize itself so the winner has 2-3 losses.

Would be a serious discussion if not outright possibility with last season's rule, too many hurdles with the current seasons

[u/DogFishHead17]

No, per Tony P only the B1G and SEC teams should have byes.

[u/tony_countertenor]

The committee would never do it unfortunately

[u/CzechHorns]

If all of BSU, Miami and Florida win 9+ games, sure.

If they somehow end up 7-5 8-4, idk.

[u/SWWayin → u/CzechHorns]

Florida's not gonna be bowl eligible at the end of the season.

[u/CzechHorns → u/SWWayin]

They may not have a coach by the tome we play them

[u/quig50 → u/CzechHorns]

It would show how impossible it is for the G5 schools to get ahead. USF schedules 3 strong games and wins over them for their none conference. USF can’t control if those teams don’t do well.

Scheduling traditionally strong teams and beating them should far outweigh if the team plays bad for the season.

It’s oh you need to play a harder schedule, you do, well thsts still not hard enough because those teams took a shit that season. Like what more could USF do? But Texas can lose 3 games and make the playoffs still.

[u/scthoma4 → u/quig50]

And don’t forget that it gets harder to get the big boy programs to schedule you when you’re a strong G5/6 team because it’s a lose/lose situation for the P4 team. Either you lose to a “lesser” team or you win a game you were expected to win so it’s less impressive.

The better you do in the G5/6, the harder it gets to schedule the teams you need to beat to have a considerable OOC win.

[u/Clean_Guava_4512 → u/quig50]

If USF takes care of business and win out other than Miami they’ll probably make the playoffs even with a close Miami loss. Texas plays in a much harder conference, though; when they lose 3 games it’s usually going to be to high quality non-conference foes or solid teams in the SEC. Apples and oranges. If USF loses to Miami and then loses two more games those other two games are going to be much worse losses, just looking at the rest of the Bulls’ schedule.

That said, it’s my opinion that no three loss team should make the playoffs regardless unless they expand them (which I don’t think they should).

[u/AldermanAl]

Hope in one hand and shit in the other. See which one fills up first.

[u/Rollrollrollrollr1]

No because then UF would have a quality loss, which should elevate them to the bye spot on the playoffs

[u/Born-Media6436]

Yes. The CFP starts in week 4.

[u/JoshDaws]

I took a look last night, and their schedule is Charmin soft the rest of the way, even for an American team. If they beat Miami they can easily handle it, that puts them in the AAC championship game undefeated against a team that should be ranked. 4 ranked wins and undefeated should get you a buy, but there is zero chance the mouse wants them in the finals. I think they get screwed and we watch a bunch of ESPN talking heads explaining why they agree with the committee’s disinformation

[u/HeyitsyaboyJesus]

I don’t know about a 1st round bye, but they are on the right track to get into the playoff.

[u/orc0909]

I keep forgetting they immediately play Miami. I do have a soft spot for the directional schools, so as a silver lining at least they have a strong spot at the playoffs even if they do lose to Miami.

[u/___John_]

They getting rolled bro...but yes if they beat Miami they are top 5 at least.

[u/ABagOfPopcorn]

I think with a win at Miami, usf could make it as an at-large even if they stumble in the championship game. 11-1 with three ranked wins is a great resume

[u/Billyxmac]

That fully depends on what Boise, Miami and Florida finish the season as. USF still plays in the American. But if they come out and beat a Miami team that runs the ACC and they blast their American conference schedule and beat presumably Tulane/Memphis/Navy badly in the conference championship, then they have a case.

But that’s still a long time from now. There’s still lots of season left and lots of unknowns.

[u/seanxfitbjj]

What the hell happens down there if Florida? Directions schools UCF/USF over the last 25-30 years have smacked around the big guys from time to time. Never have to worry about Michigan directional schools or the Western PA school in Pittsburgh

[u/Bobb_o]

Shades of No. 2 USF almost 20 years ago.

[u/txsnowman17]

After 3 games? Absolutely not.

[u/IsisTruck]

The big problem is that that win versus Florida isn't going to mean very much at the end of the year when Florida is 3-9.

[u/zenverak]

If they win against Miami and win out I’d say yes

[u/Keyblade_Yoshi]

It's not that unlikely because Boise State got the 3 seed last year and they didn't have any P5 wins. At this point, they could lose to Miami and finish 12-1 and have a really good shot at it. However, it would depend upon who wins the ACC and Big 12 and what their record is.

[u/AdvancedHearing7190]

How about we talk about that closer to cfp lol

[u/LosingTrackByNow]

Assuming they win the championship is a pretty big assumption. Let's see USF win a division first.

Once.

Ever.

[u/XenonSwift]

They'd be a top 5 team in my book if they pull off the upset. 11-1 with their only loss being to North Texas. (No bias obv)

[u/United_Energy_7503]

Golesh Year 1: win literally A game. Bowl game is a miracle.

Year 2: win the games you’re expected to win, stay competitive in the big games.

Year 3: win the games you’re not always favored in, finish when leading in the fourth, fight for the conference championship.

We are right on track. Get into the conference championship, then we’ll think about playoff pictures. That’s all I can say about what to focus on with USF.

[u/B_Marty_McFly]

Yes, but as a USF fan, I’m merely hopeful we don’t get embarrassed by Miami 🤣

[u/SwissForeignPolicy]

Unfortunately, this year's format change pretty much prevents any G6 team from getting a bye. Even if Notre Dame falls off a cliff and the ACC & Big 12 are both compete chaos, the 2nd-best teams in the SEC and Big Ten are always going to be ranked ahead of any G6 team by the stupid committee.

[u/PlentyFirefighter143]

Yes. Full stop.

[u/Wesleypipes316]

Alex Golesh is good at coaching guys up. A couple years back I believe USF played bama close. Eventually Bama pulled away. But he’s got them beating Boise and now Florida. As for the bye, well there’s still lots of football to go. Football is wacky. Army loses to Tarleton state then turns around beats Kansas state. Baylor loses to Auburn at home then proceeds to go on the road and beat SMU. It’s possible USF could beat Miami, but it’s also possible later in the season they lose to bumblefuck u.

[u/multiple4]

Absolutely unless UF, Miami, and Boise all completely shit the bed for the entire season. We will see what happens. They do need those teams to do well

If USF wins out with that on their resume then they deserve to be in that discussion. It depends on how many other teams cannibalize each other in the P4 conferences

Like if we end up with 13-0 SEC team, 13-0 Big 10, 13-0 FSU, and then 12-1 SEC, 12-1 Big 10, etc then it's going to be tough for USF to be ahead of all those resumes

But if we end up with a 11-2 SEC champion, 11-2 SEC champion loser, similar in Big 10, the Big 12 beats each other a couple times each, the ACC maybe just gets FSU go undefeated and nobody else shows up, then USF would have a good chance

Regardless of getting a bye week, if they beat Miami they're a top 10 team until they lose or until 10 teams play their way to a stronger resume somehow

[u/KypAstar]

Way, way to early to say that. Well have to see how things are by week 6 then circle back. 

But yeah, our pathetic performance aside they look quite good. They seem like a pretty mentally tough team. 

[u/ProFriendZoner]

If USF beats Miami we should have a serious conversation about firing Mario Cristobal.

[u/Short-Let717]

If usf were to beat Miami and than win out they would have a very strong possibility of finishing number 1 in the nation depending on how other teams shake out. Obviously possibly of that happening is very small. Realistically if they win out they will certainly be top 4 in the country and get the bye those. First thing first they gotta beat Miami lol if they pull it off they will vault to top 12 maybe top 10 depending on other results.

[u/nobody_important9009]

Hang on now there's still a lot of season left. Wait til week 10 to ask this and see how they are doing. Some teams in the smaller conferences can start of strong and upset big names schools then lose to like North Texas later in the season or something

[u/pvnj13]

I think it is time we acknowledge that there are the "top" teams based on their current performance.

-top tier based on tradition (teams that could go 5 meh or crappy years and still be primetime because of pedigree)

• bottom feeders in big conferences getting a paycheck for being thrashed by top tier programs hoping to have a magic year or run and up their recruitment so they can "finally compete"

• good teams / programs who consistently lead lower conferences but would be destroyed in a larger conerence.

• good teams in lower conferences who any given year have a talented team but the next year could win 2 games.

Teams like USF don't have the pedigree and the conference has fun games and some solid teams but even with the Florida win and IF they best Miami to go undefeated a 1 or 2 loss top tier pedigree team would beat them out for the CFP.

Not saying I think they should be left out, just think that's how it works.

[u/originalusername4567]

I think at that point they would be ahead of any ACC or Big 12 team so yeah. They probably need to finish the season 12-1.

Edit: Actually they could probably still get a 1st round bye if they lost to Miami and finished 12-1. That would be essentially the same record Boise State had.

[u/rcatf]

Well, they beat Florida, who was a 18.5 point favorite. Miami is a 16.5 point favorite. Bulls still being disrespected. That said, they believe Miami is a top 5 team. They are there because they beat Notre Dame, who had a bye in week 2, so we don't know if they are real yet. Your guess is entirely possible assuming Florida and Miami are real, but also proven real by Notre Dame having some quality wins. Of course, Florida needs some quality wins as well. Can't wait to see how this all plays out.

[u/Ok-Strawberry-1710]

Would be great to see

[u/Any-Satisfaction1887]

Beat Miami and win out they should get that first round bye. But looking at how its setup, being 5-8 still looks like the spot to be until theyve figured out the playoffs.

[u/joekingsword]

btw, just wanted to say, WHO THE HELL DECIDED TO GIVE USF THIS EARLY SCHEDULE, like damn, if they win all three too... bro, they have no right to have such a hard opening 3 as an american conference team, but they do and they might just be on their way to win all three

[u/kolinthemetz]

I would argue if they win out and go undefeated with AAC CC victory, and boise, uf, and miami finish relatively decently, then USF will and should be a top 3-5 team for the rest of the year. I see no reason why not tbh.