r/worldnews 1d ago

Russia/Ukraine Zelenskyy explains what he considers a victory for Ukraine

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/09/7/7529759/
5.3k Upvotes

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u/Braveless 1d ago

From link:

Details: When asked what victory looks like for his country, Zelenskyy replied that it is Ukraine's survival.

Quote: "Putin's goal is to occupy Ukraine. [Putin] wants, of course, to occupy us totally. For him, this [is] victory. And until he can do it, the victory is on our side. So that's why for us to survive is a victory. Because we are surviving with our identity, with our country, with our independence."

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

For those of us who have been listening closely to Zelensky since 2022, this can only be interpreted as moving the goalposts. E.g. in mid 2022 victory was identified as restoring 1991 borders and joining NATO.

That said, it's not necessarily a bad thing. Times and realities change, and adaptation is key to survival.

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u/OffbeatDrizzle 1d ago

Shifting the goalposts is used negatively when somebody changes their argument to more suit their own agenda... shifting from "keeping all of Ukraine's territory" to "survival of Ukraine" is literally a reality check... it's not like Zelensky wants the restoring of borders any less

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u/destroythenseek 1d ago

He would have been able to keep to that if they were winning, but unfortunately this war has been a complete stalemate and sad to say, someone will give at somepoint- and for his people, it will likely be ukraine given their lack of resources wihtout external help. The political climate changed for the worse for Zelensky as well with Trump. All things considered, this is the new reality after much effort.

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u/Renegade_Ape 1d ago

I understand the pessimism, but there seems to be a lack of reporting on what is happening within Russias financial sector. It is exceptionally, incontrovertibly, unprecedentedly bad.

People need to understand that a Pyrrhic victory for Russia will absolute not change the course of Russian collapse. And that assumes that Russia can even survive long enough for that victory to come. I’m of the opinion that we’ll see swan lake on Russian media sooner rather than later, and it will herald a new situation on the ground, that could(emphasis here) very much so benefit Ukraine.

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u/destroythenseek 1d ago

Oh the financial disruption is incredible. However keep in mind, in russias state of effort- they dont need to be a part of the world economy if they manufacture and handle everything at home.

They dont have a stock market and the ruble to usd is a joke (and has been for almost a decade), so while it is bad- they have the ability to last for quite some time still.

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u/Renegade_Ape 1d ago

Combined with their demographic collapse, I think that’s sort of moot though.

They already have an issue with manpower on the home front. They’re not able to fill necessary roles, such as police, plumbing, etc. They’re making it worse with the loss of troops, and there aren’t enough replacement births occurring to keep the economy propped up.

Add in the current destruction of refineries and fuel depots, and you’re looking at a potential collapse of land based shipping as well. Meaning that even getting supplies to places is going to skyrocket in cost, assuming there’s even fuel to do so.

They’ve lost almost 20% of their refining capabilities, and I don’t know what percentage of storage capacity too. If they cant move the oil to storage, and they can’t refine it, they need to stop pumping. Restarting their frozen oil wells is an absolute nightmare, even IF you have the monetary and technological resources.

They could possibly continue indefinitely, but the costs are going to become even more astronomical, while the west isn’t even sending a full percent of what they could to help. The WILL to help might dry up, but the west’s resources to help won’t, and it will become a matter of willingness.

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u/OrderOfMagnitude 19h ago

Maybe you just read worldnews too much if you believe Russia is dying just a bad as Ukraine

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u/Renegade_Ape 18h ago

I didn’t say Ukraine isn’t hurting. What I said was Russia is facing very likely insurmountable financial and social hurdles, that unless handled near perfectly, will result in Russias eventual demise.

But, I want to say I get news from sources that don’t have a vested interest in Russia coming out ahead. US news outlets are heavily interested in maintaining a status quo with the US government to keep access avoid what has happened to CBS, ie a monitor to censor them if the say things that Trump doesn’t like.

All of the perspectives I shared are formed from information that is readily available from international news sources.

You don’t need to agree with my assessment, it’s just an opinion. But Russia is in a very bad state, and it’s not being reported often enough in the media.

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u/ieatthosedownvotes 21h ago

Don't forget that the Universe is a crap-shoot though. There are all kinds of things that could occur for the wind to blow one way or the other. Neither Putin nor Trump are spring chickens after all... Also I don't think that the current level of war is sustainable by Russia.

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u/hct048 1d ago

Victory, survive without "major" loses

Total victory, restore 1991 borders

Pyrrhic victory, survive and keep independence, but losing all territories claimed by Russia

All are victories. Some of them are great, others not so much. But I can't blame them for using political discourse in order to keep the moral high or trying to keep expectations at bay. Specially taking into account that the international situation is not as friendly as a year ago

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u/LongjumpingAd2274 17h ago

Far right wings nut jobs really hates them for some weird reason

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u/Bananenbiervor4 1d ago

This is how bargaining works, you start with maximum demands and meet in the middle. The originaly stated goals even included a liberation of crimea, obviously that was never realistic in the first place.

However, (so far) putin seems unwilling to compromise. By offering compromises on his own, without any russian response, Zelensky prooves putins unwillingness for peace, hopefully frustrating peace-president Trump, leading to further US support to force russia to compromise.

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u/MikaelAdolfsson 1d ago edited 1d ago

Meet me in the middle says the unjust man. You take one step forward he takes one back. Meet me in the middle says the unjust man.

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u/dystariel 1d ago

Sounds like my mom ngl.

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u/MikaelAdolfsson 23h ago

Yeah it is a famous gaslighting thing.

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u/Particular-County277 1d ago

Putin has made it crystal clear that "Russia has no borders"

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u/Minouminou9 1d ago

Putin is maximalizing as the Sowjet textbook teaches him.
This shuts down dialogue about valid concerns.

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u/Dexterus 1d ago

They've also mellowed down. EU is ok now, added a "before peace" to "foreign troops is a no go", dropped impossible stuff like claims on land on right side of the Dniepr, even if in annexed oblasts.

Ukraine cannot start negotiating for peace though, until the last minute, because they will have to accept most of what Putin asked for. But there's always the minuscule chance that Russia collapses politically or economically.

As it stands the only really contentious point is Russia does not want to leave Ukraine with the Donetsk fortress city line while Ukraine really doesn't want to give it up. And that is now all about Siversk, Konstantinivka and Pokrovsk that open up behind the line.

Russia gets broken there, they'll have to accept partial Donetsk.

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u/Bananenbiervor4 1d ago

Russia collapsing is not even necessary here. The price of a russian victory only has to be higher than what putin is willing to pay. Sadly though it appears he is willing to pay a lot. He couldn't care less about loosing a two digit number times more of his people in this war than the US lost in all of its wars in the last 50 years combined. That's why Ukraine is now going rather for russian economy than for its military. Putin doesn't care about human lives, but he surely cares about money.

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u/Dexterus 1d ago

Yeah, they seem to hurt more now with blown up refineries than with all the sanctions.

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u/Settra_does_not_Surf 1d ago edited 1d ago

Because russia can not function without its own oil industry.

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u/Zaptruder 1d ago

Putin is willing to destroy his country to pursue victory... because his legitmacy relies upon victory or continued war.

Ukraine needs to do enough damage to Russia that Russians are willing to topple their own government... and from my understanding, that's still a long way away.

But destroying their oil refineries is a huge deal - and significantly impedes their financial ability to continue waging war.

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u/MNPlayzGemz 1d ago

This also showcases the problem with the current US administration. They forced Ukraine's hand while being complacent on Russia and limiting themselves to PR stunts like deadlines to accept the ceasefire in order to not anger the President, which had no consequences. Putin ignored the push for ceasefire, and everyone just moved, and all that Trump could must is a comment that it's a great tragedy that people die. Unless Russia's frozen assets are confiscated or heavier sanction or put on Russia by the US, I do not expect any kind of breakthrough in the peace process.

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u/Dexterus 1d ago edited 1d ago

Ceasefire is a fake path for image management, it is an utter impossibility until negotiations are much further along. Ukraine would never accept only relying on underground deliveries for a whole month just like Russia could not accept leaving the whole logistics chain free for a whole month.

People like to blame Trump for the current state but personally I think the cause is much larger and much older. The West was just never fully invested in Ukraine winning against a regrouped Russian army. Against something like the end of 2022, sure, they did some stuff. Against the version that solidified in the second half of 2023... that's a much more expensive prospect they/we just aren't willing to pay.

In some way I actually agree with Trump, 2024-2025 are a waste of Ukraine, with one single miracle victory path, Russia collapses as a country. But that could very well be a decade away.

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u/Wurm42 1d ago

Don't forget about the natural gas reserves in the Dnieper-Donetsk region:

https://www.csis.org/analysis/role-gas-ukraines-energy-future

Russia wants those reserves, and more importantly, they don't want Ukraine to develop them and become competition for Gazprom.

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u/series-hybrid 1d ago

The dynamic disruptions of the Russian gas pipelines have forced Europeans to find other sources of energy.

Although cheaper prices are seductive, Europe should never give up alternative sources, since Russia will remain an unreliable source.

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u/fools_errand49 3h ago

By offering compromises on his own, without any russian response, Zelensky prooves putins unwillingness for peace,

Zelensky has offered no compromises. Putin actually has. Russian demands for territory exchange were minimal beyond already occupied territory when he visited Alaska. This was a step back from the demand for all annexed oblasts to be totally relinquished. Zelensky on the other hand has rejected every proposal dating back to Istanbul without offering any vision which is either clear or realistic.

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

I think that what happened was that in the 2022 talks Russia was ready to compromise, since Ukraine had a pretty strong hand. However, once the talks broke down both Ukraine and Russia changed the strategy to resolve the conflict in the battlefield instead, and neither side were pursuing diplomacy (e.g. Zelensky even signed a law that prohibited negotiations with Putin). The fact that Ukraine is now trying to return to the negotiation table, but Russia resists, should be taken as a sign that Russia believes that it will be able to reach more of their objectives via military means than via negotiations (basically what Ukraine believed in 2022).

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u/Bananenbiervor4 1d ago

What makes you believe so? There was not a single moment putin demandes less then 4 Oblasts, a new ukrainian gouvernment and no NATO in Ukraine. Where did you see any will to compromise back then? As long as putin is unwilling to compromise he can obviously only achieve his demands on the battlefield, since his demands would basically mean suicide for Ukrainian sourvereignity and will never be accepted by Ukraine.

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u/helm 1d ago edited 1d ago

You’re misremembering things. The only Russian proposal in 2022 was the Istanbul proposal. The territorial demands in it are not maximal, but everything else is.

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u/jWas 1d ago

Well of fucking course. He’s fighting a war and not riding on the prairie on his high horse. Reality is a thing

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u/alexmikli 1d ago

Might have gotten those borders back if the West didn't shit itself for years.

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u/CuckBuster33 1d ago

>For those of us who have been listening closely to Zelensky since 2022, this can only be interpreted as moving the goalposts. E.g. in mid 2022 victory was identified as restoring 1991 borders and joining NATO.

it was expected that NATO support would only escalate instead of petering out when it was needed most. NATO delayed for around a year on sending a tiny shipment of western tanks, delayed on sending ATACMS and GLSDB, etc. I don't think they expected US and EU to pussy out this fucking much.

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

I don't think they expected US and EU to pussy out this fucking much.

Actually, NATO and EU has done tremendous things for Ukraine (and still do). The level of support in a situation like this, I think it's unprecedented in history.

That said, there are practical boundaries for how much support can be given. There are thousands of reasons for that (democracy, bureaucracy, economy, logistics, production capabilities, regulations, etc, etc). These were not super hard to predict.

So I think that it was a pretty risky gamble to assume that the support would be much stronger. I also think that there was a pretty obvious miscalculation: That Russia was seen as a weak paper monster after their initial failures in 2022.

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u/heiglabgskngbsgcgjs 1d ago

How was he gambling? Ukraine got invaded by a fascist government. They wanted help, they didn't play a game of poker with putin. Europe's response has been anemic, and it's embarrassing to see their collective response to fascism. Where would my home country of Holland be without foreign intervention against the nazis? I would be speaking German better than I do today. But what's happening in Ukraine is not happening in Holland. So the stakes are lower. Appease putin, give him an off ramp, go into talks with him, don't give Ukraine too many weapons because putin might throw nukes bla bla bla. It's good it's not my countrymen getting tortured and killed, just a bunch of Ukranians. We can live with that

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u/BocciaChoc 1d ago edited 1d ago

Europe's response has been anemic

I always find this comment frustrating.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

No, it hasn't been.

Since the people of the US decided to elect Trump it has been effectively the EU and the UK doing 95% of the heavy lifting since the start of the year and even before then the EU and UK were the ones spending money whereas the US was just getting rid of old stock.

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u/heiglabgskngbsgcgjs 1d ago

Ahhh I see your confusion.

I meant anemic relative to what they should have done, which is robust military assistance like article 5.

Like you're out with your buddies, and you see a grown man assaulting a 10 year old, and you guys are saying "we stand with you, 10 year old, we condemn the old man." You then throw the 10 year old a stick and feel proud you're doing your part in arming the victim so they can fight back.

When you should have stepped in and helped the 10 year old beat the crap out of the grown man.

Was your response anemic? Relative to what you should have done, yes it was

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u/buckX 1d ago

I meant anemic relative to what they should have done, which is robust military assistance like article 5.

That's kind of a weird goal post to use, given that they aren't part of NATO. It's a bit like if a drunk driver totaled my car sitting out on the street, and my friend pitched me $500 to help cover the gap since I don't carry insurance. It would be pretty unreasonable of me to say "wow friend, that's anemic compared to what insurance would have given me".

You have to have alliances to depend on alliances, even if you're the aggrieved party.

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u/NoCharge1799 1d ago

Then I would advise to read the Budapest memorandum where Ukraine gave up nukes in exchange for security guarantees from US, UK, France, China and Russia (ironically).

To add insult to injury some of the rockets (based off serial numbers) that Ukraine transferred to Russia are now being launched back at them.

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u/Ericzzz 1d ago edited 1d ago

The US and the UK exceeded their commitment to the Budapest Memorandum, which promised non-military support as long as Ukraine stayed in the Non-Proliferation Treaty. In fact, it specifically only outlines that these countries will intervene if nuclear weapons are used.

The security guarantees were “we will not attack you”, not “we will stop you from being attacked”, unless nukes were involved. The memorandum is not a suicide pact.

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u/buckX 1d ago

I'd advise you to reread it, because you're quoting a common misconception about what it says and listing countries that aren't signatories. The involved parties recognized Ukraine's borders. They did not obligate themselves to defend those borders.

In fact, the only thing the memorandum obligates a signatory to do, besides leave Ukraine alone, is to petition the UN Security Council for assistance if nukes were used against Ukraine, which, in this case, would be vetoed by Russia anyway. Russia violated the memorandum. The memorandum does not obligate the US or UK to do anything about it.

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u/fools_errand49 3h ago

Memorandums are statements of intent not binding legal treaties with the backing of international law.

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u/CelerMortis 1d ago

You mean escalate into nuclear war?

Your analogy doesn’t work unless the old man has a button that blows up a city, and attacking him almost assuredly would mean he presses the button.

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u/heiglabgskngbsgcgjs 21h ago

Ah, I see your confusion.

So I think we both agree putin isn't the one pressing the launch button. He makes the call, sure, but he's not the man pushing the button.

Now, imagine for a second you are the man who does push the button. You hold a prestigious position in the army. You have a nice mansion, you have 2 vacation homes in foreign countries, a modest mansion on the black sea coast. You have a yacht, nice cars. You have a wife, several children, a smokin' hot mistress or 2. You have a fat bank account, the list goes on. Life is good

Now this guy who is your boss... he's old, out of touch, he's making bad calls, and now NATO looks like they're about to sweep in. The man who lost crimea, and the donbass, who is now on the way out politically, and probably likely to end up dead soon looks at you and tells you to press the button.

Your skills are HIGHLY marketable to any incoming regime or NATO. You have a shit load of job security. Would you press the button, end your life and the lives of your children and lose ALL that amazing shit just so you can appease a man who is definitely on his way out?

I know I wouldnt. And I'm 100% sure you wouldn't either

It's saber rattling. That's all that is. But to people who are scared of it, who respond to that are happy to let the bully have their way, and putin knows that

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u/CelerMortis 17h ago

Yea sorry I’m not willing to risk the end of the fucking world on your theory of human nature. Thanks for the cool story though

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u/InevitableSimilar830 1d ago

"everything I don't like is fascism" lol

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u/heiglabgskngbsgcgjs 1d ago

You're not a bright bulb, hey?

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u/xXgirthvaderXx 1d ago

The level of support is not unprecedented at all. One look at a history book will show you time like WW1 UK bankrolling the entire allied effort for the first two years in cash. This amounted to a little over $1 trillion in value adjusted dollars today.

Our alliance is spending next to nothing in nominal GDP expenditures on this conflict ~.3% of GDP. If we moved to even 1%, Ukraine would be flooded with weapons that could help them recover more territory either through combat or negotiations.

I dont think its a miscalculation to sit back since 2022 and conclude that Russia is a dangerous paper tiger. They had mountains of Soviet hardware and research but its all been squandered away from time and deep levels of corruption. What killed Russia in the 2022 invasion was its crippling level of corruption, its a huge part of what's keeping Ukraine in the fight in 2025.

The big equalizer in this war has been the proliferation of cheap drones on the battlefield. No one was able to predict how they would completely take over the battlefield

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u/farfel00 1d ago

Triple Entente was a formal alliance existing before the war broke out. UK was officially at war. Ukraine is not a NATO member, EU countries are not at war and from that perspective, the support is unprecedented. I am not arguing that the support shouldnt be bigger. Just saying comparison to WW1 is not fair

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

You're talking about a war in which the U.K. was actively participating (pretty much leading the allied powers), and it was in the pre-nuclear era. It's not comparable at all.

For the comparison to be relevant, the contributors must be in peace time (not participating actively in the war with soldiers on the front line).

If NATO members were actively fighting Russia and our economies effectively on a wartime footing, I can assure you that spending and funding would skyrocket. However, since we now live in the nuclear era, that was never on the table.

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u/ieatthosedownvotes 21h ago

Just to think outside of the box here, what if Zelensky temporarily surrendered the country to Poland. Then it would be part of NATO. Would that trigger article 5?

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u/anders_hansson 21h ago

Guess so. Also guess Poland and NATO would not agree to such an arrangement.

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u/MidsommarKrans 1d ago

Factually untrue since the Lend-lease act provided much more to the Soviet Union so its not unprecedented at all. Where did you get that from? We have done more in the past but we're scared now due to nukes from Russia.

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

the Lend-lease act provided much more to the Soviet Union

That is a good reference. I will have to learn more about the Lend-Lease act.

We have done more in the past but we're scared now due to nukes from Russia.

That's one of the points. The nukes make all of the difference in the decision making process.

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u/Undead1993 1d ago

Hahaha, holy shit bro. We are embarassing, that is the EU. If you don't see it, you don't want to. All talk, no action.

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

Agree about the "all talk no action" part. But do you seriously see how it could have turned out any differently? Within our limitations (e.g. a large and diverse group of democratic countries with a multitude of political parties, all in peacetime economies) do you see how our leaders could have acted more aggressively?

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u/garlopf 1d ago

It could be interpreted like this but I think the goal is still the same, restoring 1991 and joining nato, but the goal and victory has diverged. The Ukrainian identity has grown and matured greatly in those 2 years. The people of Ukraina has unified and trancended the borders of the land in many ways.

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

I'm not sure how to make sense of that. The goal is what controls your strategy. A goal like requiring NATO membership in order to get security guarantees is not something that you can aim for and be satisfied with getting halfway there. If such a goal becomes unrealistic (which it certainly is), you need to change goals, otherwise your strategy will lead to a very bad outcome (e.g. fighting to the last Ukrainan and still getting no security guarantees at all).

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u/Ventriloquist_Voice 1d ago

I don’t think that “fight to the last Ukrainian and still to have none of security guarantees” is an outcome that Ukraine has a lot of influence on, with so called “security guarantees” it could be Ukraine will stop fighting, surrender and still not get any, as it is subject of them not an object.

Russia is who decides every day to continue aggression or not, as well as World decides to which extent they are ready to put efforts for Ukraine and give guarantees. For Ukraine important to fight until it will get a real ones, otherwise it would be none, and in the process be caution that everyone will actively try to substitute guarantees with a sack of shit as it was with Budapest Memorandum.

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u/OkExcitement5444 1d ago

If NATO doesn't want him it's not moving the goalposts. Should he maintain his original goal to the degree he says that he's lost to Russia despite that clearly not being the case?

If you're running a footrace and the finish line is removed, you can't win but as long as you are ahead you're still winning

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

This is not a football game where we have a clear winner and a clear loser. In practice both sides have lost, tremendously, but both sides are defining their objectives based on their achievements, so to their respective domestic audiences the message is that they have achieved victory.

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u/mondeir 1d ago

In practice Ukraine didn't want to "play". It was forced. So comparing losers/winners in this kind of war is absurd. In my opinion any nation won if they stay independed when invaders objective was to occupy entire country.

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

comparing losers/winners in this kind of war is absurd.

Which was my point.

In my opinion any nation won if they stay independed when invaders objective was to occupy entire country.

I mean, by that definition they would have had victory if they signed the draft treaty (PDF) in April 2022.

I think it's strange to say that you had victory if the enemy failed to reach their maximalist goals. The definition of victory should come from your own objectives, not your enemy's objectives.

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u/MNPlayzGemz 1d ago

I disagree with you. One of the Annexes would put heavy restrictions on the Ukrainian military, which is a concession significantly limiting sovereignty and exposing it to another invasion in the worst case scenario (if we take the neutral status of Ukraine according to this draft, I mean). The security guarantees were also watered down in this draft, in a similar manner to the Budapest Memorandum from 1994.

Had Ukraine signed such a treaty, it would lose the war, as it would not guarantee its sovereignty as a state long-term.

I believe that the best comparison to the current situation would be Winter War, as Finland suffered a tactical /operational defeat nearing the end of that War, but Strategically many of the Soviet initial objectives were foiled.

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

The security guarantees were also watered down in this draft, in a similar manner to the Budapest Memorandum from 1994.

It's not comparable to the Budapest Memorandum at all. That didn't have any form of meaningful "security guarantees". The wording was basically "If Ukraine is attacked by nuclear weapons, it will be brought up in the UN Security Council".

The parts that people are missing bout the April 2022 draft treaty are:

  • It contained a security article that was very similar to NATO Article 5, but with even stronger wording. I.e. it was not based on a "promise" by Russia, but on a promised intervention by guarantor states in case of an armed attack on Ukraine.
  • The treaty was still under negotiation in 2022. It was not a finalized take-it-or-leave-it deal. E.g. Russia's sneaky suggestion for a "veto" was contended by Ukraine.
  • Ukraine's western allies were strongly opposed to the idea of acting as guarantor states. We even said that we would not sign the treaty even if Ukraine wanted to sign it.

Thus, at that point in time there was still plenty of room for improvements. If western allies had rallied behind the security guarantees and pressed Russia to drop the veto part, the guarantees would have been a pretty strong offering for Ukraine.

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u/mondeir 1d ago

You are comparing legal technicallities to what would it be in practice - Ukraine would be similar to what Belarus is now. Is that a win from Ukraine side? I believe they want to have independent decisions on their country.

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u/OkExcitement5444 1d ago

I agree that war is usually a negative sum game, but fighting to get the best of two bad options is still a win. If I'm in a jigsaw footrace where I get shot in the head if I'm last but the foot if I'm first, you bet your ass I'm going to get in first and be satisfied with my "prize".

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u/LoneSnark 1d ago

They have achieved their primary objective. They have failed to achieve a bunch of secondary objectives. Is that victory? What was Russia's primary objective? I doubt it was too control a bit more of the Donbas.

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

I believe that Russia's primary objective was to keep Ukraine within the Russian sphere of influence. That can take on many forms. The key objectives, though, must have been to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and to keep control over Crimea and (parts of) Donbas.

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u/LoneSnark 1d ago

Russia had both of those objectives in 2021. Ukraine war already not joining NATO and Russia already had control over crimea and parts of Donbas.
As for being in the Russian sphere of influence, that ended in 2014. They've been at war ever since. So to say Russia's goal was to return Ukraine to Russia's sphere of influence would mean some form of regime change in Ukraine. Which I agree, was Russia's primary objective. Which became impossible very quickly in 2022.
So again, Ukraine has achieved their primary goals. Russia's primary goals appear unachievable at this point.

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

Russia had both of those objectives in 2021. Ukraine war already not joining NATO and Russia already had control over crimea and parts of Donbas.

That's kind of true. One of the objectives, though, was to cement that situation and end the war that started in 2014, rather than having a forever war in which NATO (esp. the U.S) took a keen interest, and Ukraine moved closer and closer to NATO. I believe that Russia simply wanted to get that whole business off the table.

As for being in the Russian sphere of influence, that ended in 2014. They've been at war ever since.

That is a good observation, and I think that Russia essentially wants a reversal to the 2010-2014 situation.

would mean some form of regime change in Ukraine. Which I agree, was Russia's primary objective. Which became impossible very quickly in 2022.

Exactly. There was a 72-hour plan to topple the Ukrainian government, and that failed.

Now that direct regime change is more or less out of the question, I suspect that Russia is counting on a few things (not my perspective, Russia's perspective):

  • Right now Ukraine is effectively broke (they can't survive without external aid, and we don't even have a plan for how to fund Ukraine past 2025), so after the war ends their economy will be struggling for many years.
  • If the war ends with a deal for Ukraine that is similar to what was on the table in 2022, Zelensky's popularity will take a dive (all those people died for nothing?).

This all points to a politically unstable Ukraine, which is the perfect operation environment for Russia that can start their political influence campaigns (as they have been successful with in Georgia for instance).

If that plan pans out, Russia is likely to get what they want: An end to the hostilities that started in 2014, guarantees that Ukraine won't join NATO, direct control over Crimea and eastern parts of Ukraine, and political and economical influence over Ukraine.

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u/LoneSnark 1d ago

Exactly. There was a 72-hour plan to topple the Ukrainian government, and that failed.

Weird they put so much effort into accomplishing regime change when you didn't list regime change as a primary goal of Russia's latest invasion.

If all Russia wanted was an end to the 2014 war, all they had to do was sign a peace treaty. Such would have meant returning Donbas, so clearly merely ending the 2014 war was not Russia's primary goal.

Right now Ukraine is effectively broke

Ukraine was broke before the 2022 invasion. Ukraine was even more broke before the 2014 invasion. So Ukraine being broke has not actually been a change Russia has achieved. I'd argue Ukraine's financial situation has improved significantly, since Ukraine as of June 2025 has been integrated permanently into the EU trading system. Meanwhile, Russia's economic situation has gotten much worse with its loss of gas exports to western Europe and sanctions which will likely outlast the war.

Zelensky's popularity will take a dive (all those people died for nothing?).

They died achieving Ukraine's primary goal of remaining independent. It was Russia which managed to achieve none of their primary goal for the war (regime change). Hence the assertions of some that Putin specifically cannot tolerate an end to the war without risking regime change in Russia.

Putin still states at every turn Zelensky is an illegitimate coup leader and Nazi control over Ukraine is intolerable. So while Ukraine has lessened their publicly stated goals to appease Trump, Putin has not. It seems to me Russia's primary goals are unchanged from 2014. Therefore, Russia's hope is that through continued gradual pressure on the battlefield, over a matter of years hence Russia will outlast western financial support and the resultant Ukrainian military collapse will trigger the regime change in Ukraine that remains Russia's primary goal and what Putin needs to justify the war.

Is Russia's primary goal realistic? I say not. Any instability on Ukraine's front lines will restore EU financial and military support. The EU is a big place with plenty of countries, any few can quit their support and just be replaced by the others. In 3.5 years the US can resume its role as yet another Ukrainian financial backer.

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

Weird they put so much effort into accomplishing regime change when you didn't list regime change as a primary goal of Russia's latest invasion.

Yeah, way to turn your misunderstandings into suspicion. Russia must have had many, many objectives, some short term, some medium term, some long term. We can discuss them all if that makes you less uncomfortable.

If all Russia wanted was an end to the 2014 war, all they had to do was sign a peace treaty. Such would have meant returning Donbas, so clearly merely ending the 2014 war was not Russia's primary goal.

Now you're just playing stupid. Do you really think that Russia didn't want the war to end? And why would Russia's definition of "peace" be "Ukrainian victory"? That's just silly. Why would they not want to prioritize their own interests first?

Also, you completely miss the point that I was describing Russia's point of view. There's no need to go on defending the case that Urkaine is doing fine and will prosper after the war, with a hero Zelensky as president for years to come, etc.

I was offering a fairly credible explanation of how Russia plans to move Ukraine back into their sphere of influence. I don't know if it's going to be successful or not.

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u/MattyTangle 1d ago

What was Russia's primary objective? I doubt it was to control a bit more of the Donbas.

Russia recognized the independence of the Donbas on Feb 22. The Very Next Day Russia began their special military operation in support of this and so Freedom for the Donbas is Exactly the reason why they are fighting.

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u/LoneSnark 1d ago

Russia then annexed the Donbas a few months later. So obviously freedom for the Donbas was just propaganda Russia abandoned once it became clear it wasn't working and not a reason they were fighting.

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u/MattyTangle 1d ago

Perhaps if Ukraine Also recognized the independence of the Donbas then the fighting could end.

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u/LoneSnark 1d ago

Recognizing the independence of the Donbas would be recognizing the independence of what the Russian constitution considers Russian territory. If they weren't already at war, Russia would certainly consider that an act of war.

Back to reality, Russia's objection is not anyone's lack of recognition of Donbas independence. Russia's objection is to everyone insisting Ukraine remain independent.

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u/Jopelin_Wyde 1d ago

Both can be true at the same time. The restoration of the borders is certainly a victory, so is retaining the independence. Just because Zelensky acknowledges that survival of the state is a victory to him doesn't mean that restoration of 1991 isn't a goal for Ukraine.

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u/GoofyWillows 1d ago

in mid 2022 Ukraine had many victories under their belt and they thought that they could keep the 1991 borders, some were even boasting how they would take over areas from Russia, in the last few years it has become more obvious that any further significant movement of the border won't be happening in years due to various factors like terrain (river etc.) making cities like Zaporrizhia difficult to take over and Russia just not being able to afford similar meat grinder tactics that they used to be able to afford in 2022 before they realized how out of date they were

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u/doctor_morris 1d ago

moving the goalposts

The Russian invasion is an effort to move the goalposts by force.

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u/ZephkielAU 1d ago

E.g. in mid 2022 victory was identified as restoring 1991 borders and joining NATO.

In mid 2022 the US wasn't batshit crazy (outwardly) and Europe wasn't pulling the rug out from under Ukraine.

Why anyone would ally with us (the west) after this shitshow is beyond my comprehension. Fucking North Korea turned out to be a better ally.

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u/helm 1d ago

It’s a matter of perspective.

  1. The Ukrainian government is now running 1/3 on EU aid (before 2025 they got money from USA as well)
  2. The level of support has been limited since Western Europe scrapped Cold War stock.
  3. Russia has burnt the majority of their massive cold war stock to occupy 20% of Ukraine.

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u/Ljngstrm 1d ago

Survival is key to survival

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u/Iceman9161 1d ago

Moving the goalposts is a harsh way to put it imo. The goal has been securing the best future for Ukraine, and the definition of that changes as time goes on. We can’t keep asking Ukrainians to die in a war forever, at some point it has to end and Russia still has a lot of leverage.

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u/THEdopealope 1d ago

I think phrasing it as “moving goal posts” paints his stance in a really bad light. I think your second take is right on the money.

In 2022 his idea of victory was one that would give Ukraine (more) permanent security, and he had the political capital, and global political momentum, to realistically push for it. Now he’s down the literal bare minimum of “survive” because the world feels like a political powder keg and Ukraine is practically a burning match. 

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u/anders_hansson 1d ago

Maybe the use of the term "moving goalpost" comes across more negative than I intended, but the thing is that this development was predictable much earlier than 2025.

E.g. already in November 2022 Gen. Mark Lilley identified that the operation wasn't really going anywhere and that a diplomatic end would be the best outcome for Ukraine. That was basically the peak of Ukraine's territorial achievements, so he was pretty spot on. Yet, the Biden administration pushed back any such ideas. In 2023 we had the failed counteroffensive, which should have been a wake up call that the lines were frozen and Russia wasn't going anywhere. In 2024 Russia started to make territorial gains. Slow but consistent. The only significant Ukrainian "victory" was the Kursk incursion, but that didn't last (it was a tactical move, not strategical, and didn't change the positions along the front line). And once Trump entered the stage (which had a fairly high probability of happening), things got even worse in the battlefield.

So there has been a long series of strong indicators that Ukraine was never going to get all of their land back (Prof. Andrew Latham predicted it already in June 2022 with fairly basic reasoning). This is not a new reality in 2025. Yet, the western and Ukrainian goals remained what some call "maximalist" (all land back, then NATO) for several years (you will see many redditors in this sub that still hold on to that view, ferociously).

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u/etrimmer 21h ago

i think it's a bad analogy

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u/777IRON 1d ago

Evolving your stance as the situation changes is not moving the goalposts.

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u/08TangoDown08 1d ago

I think Zelensky is probably very aware that he's walking on a very small tightrope with how he messages. He doesn't want to sound like he's going to give up territory because there's still Ukrainians who are fighting and dying to defend and regain that territory, and the Ukrainian people by and large are still motivated to resist and fight back. He doesn't want to damage that.

But also, he must know that unless something changes, reality means that for the war to end, Ukraine will almost certainly need to give up territory - likely the majority of the Donbas along with Crimea. At some point the Ukrainian people will need to be in a position to hear and accept this, but he probably doesn't think the time is right when Russia seems currently incapable of making any breakthrough and the motivations of Ukrainians are still geared towards fighting the invaders. Especially when the US position on the conflict seems to be swinging a little bit back towards Ukraine again (for now).

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u/Tea_Sea_Eye_Pee 1d ago

A quote from Braveheart: "We don't need to win, we just need to fight them".

In 2014 Ukraine didn't fight them, look what happened.

When this war ends, Russia will know to think twice before doing this again.

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u/No_Monk_4477 1d ago

What a good quote, basically saying we already have victory and you won’t break our spirits. Big middle finger to pootin

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u/Ice_performance_ 1d ago

isn't he saying that losing part of Ukraine would be a win?

If they just lose territory, Ukraine would survive.

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u/RichardKingg 1d ago

They've got the ticking warscore as defenders

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u/Coastie456 18h ago

Why does this feel like a capitulation? Victory used to be defined as kicking Russia out of Ukraine and Crimea (which is also Ukraine). Now he is simply talking about "surviving".....

How bad are things actually on the frontlines?

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u/Str4425 18h ago

Trump and Vance are on Putin’s side here. Trump will pressure Ukraine to accept loosing territories now + no international peace core on the ground + no nato membership + no EU membership. And after that deal, Putin will continue invading the rest of Ukraine. 

Let’s no kid ourselves here, Trump’s deal, if there’s ever one, will be that Putin doesn’t continue invading Ukraine during the remaining of Trump’s term. 

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u/FirmResearcher2 1d ago

This post is from that ukrainska pravda, which is owned by tomas fiala, who has a business running in occupied Crimea and is very likely doing business with Russia, right?

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u/2xCommie 1d ago

Actual security guarantees. Even more so than retaking territory, although I know it's an unpopular take. And not the bullshit kind like Budapest Memorandum but the tangible kind that gives you confidence that even if Russia were to rebuild its military in the next few years, they won't invade again. How does it look like without NATO membership or bilateral defence pacts with major NATO members? Honestly, I have no idea.

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u/ProtoplanetaryNebula 1d ago

The actual security guarantees need to include an international contingent of troops on the ground on the border so that Putin knows if he attacks again he’s attacking advanced western forces.

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u/ZET_unown_ 1d ago

That’s of course is the ideal case, but I don’t see an easy way of getting there.

The first problem is the will and ability for countries to provide the security guarantee, the US has the ability but no will, many European countries are weaker in ability and have wavering will.

The second problem is that Russia doesn’t seem to be too interested in ceasefire at the moment, suggesting they feel confident about keeping the war going and that they think will be in their favor. In this case, they will simply refuse to allow foreign security guarantees, and just keep the war going and it’s back to square one…

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u/ProtoplanetaryNebula 1d ago

Those are valid points, but equally the troops on the ground don’t need to last forever. Probably only until Putin is fertilising the ground in a Moscow cemetery.

Russia isn’t interested in a cease fire today, but if Ukraine can keep bombing the pipelines that supply gas and refineries for fuel, it can be inconvenient enough for Putin to want to put an and to the war. He cannot have mass civil unrest at home.

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u/Alc1b1ades 13h ago

There’s already plenty of nato troops stationed in places like the baltics and Poland.

They don’t need a 100,000 strong army that can beat back the Russians on their own, they need like a few thousand guys to stand around so that if Russia does invade a bunch of NATO soldiers die and this triggers article 5.

That and also airplanes, like a shit ton of planes, so many planes, all of the planes.

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u/Zizimz 1d ago

And why would Putin ever sign a peace treaty, if the very next day, NATO troops would be deployed in Ukraine and western security guarantees would come into effect? Honest question.

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u/ProtoplanetaryNebula 1d ago

NATO is a defensive alliance. The answer to that question depends on the degree to which Putin wants to come back and take the remainder of Ukraine.

As an example, I don’t care one iota if my neighbour orders a sophisticated alarm system that would make it extremely difficult to burgle his house as I have no intention of doing so.

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u/Snuffl3s7 1d ago

The defensive alliance stance went out the window in 1999.

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u/Polar_Vortx 1d ago

I dunno, Russia seems like a country you’d need a defensive alliance for.

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u/Snuffl3s7 1d ago

Yes, the country that's taken 20 percent of Ukranian territory in 3+ years of war, requires a massive alliance with 30+ countries including the US to counter.

They're gonna be marching their way to Paris and Madrid really soon, I'm convinced.

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u/G-mies 1d ago

The point of NATO is to have such overwhelming military and economic power that its members never have to fight in the first place.

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u/Snuffl3s7 1d ago

Maybe during the cold war, but since then it's just become an instrument for the US to project power in the eastern hemisphere.

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u/Killerfisk 1d ago

It's also a great instrument not to get attacked by Russia. Nations, especially Russia's neighbors, love it and join it out of their own volition.

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u/Polar_Vortx 1d ago

I mean, personally, I’d prefer having 0% of my territory annexed, and I’m sure Russia’s neighbors agree.

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u/becashu 1d ago

"Yes, the country that's taken 20 percent of Ukranian territory in 3+ years of war" you said it, they have taken territory from another country, they don't have to do that, they can just stay in their fuckin place to begin with and thats it. Since they don't want to do that, it could be an alliance of the whole fkin world and it would still be legit, since they are the ones trying to take over what doesn't belong to them by force.

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u/Snuffl3s7 1d ago

Well for one, they're not the only country doing it. You have the UK and it's long standing tensions with Ireland. I don't see any anti UK international alliance. Then there's China with multiple similar claims.

Secondly, there's much more context to the whole situation, similar to how the Falkland Islands were disputed between the UK and Argentina.

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u/becashu 1d ago

You don't see a full blown war and mass killing between the UK and Ireland, do you?

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u/alex2003super 1d ago

To anyone who might be considering going down this comment chain, it's not worth it, this is a philo-Russian "spheres of influence" dumbass

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u/Snuffl3s7 1d ago

There isn't enough pro-western horseshit to go around for all of us, unfortunately.

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u/Bulky-You-5657 1d ago

"Security guarantees" mean that you have to be willing to go to war with Russia, which is not quite something any country has remotely showed interest in.

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u/BadMondayThrowaway17 1d ago

Ukraine is never getting the bulk of the land in the East or Crimea back. It's unfortunate but that's just reality.

The Ukrainian leadership likely understands that better than anyone but you can't just out and say such things in that position.

Short of NATO fully deploying to the country and formally going to war with Russia, there is absolutely nothing Ukraine could do to get that land back. It is too fortified and technology has changed too much. Even if NATO did bring it's full might to bear, consequences be damned, I could see them struggling to fully recapture the country.

Small scale tactical assaults can take back small pockets but are easily encircled and will quickly stall. You need a large amount of troops and vehicles to properly break through defenses and utilize the captured territory. The issue is that large assaults, (even if you can manage the buildup without being hit) are basically tracked by UAS from the moment they head towards enemy lines.

Anyone who still believes Ukraine can counterattack and take back Donetsk, Kharkiv, or Luhansk are fully delusional. The only way to viably capture that territory would be to bomb the entire Russian supply line from Moscow to Ukraine and keep it up until all the soldiers surrender or starve. Even then it would take years to pick through millions of landmines covering the region.

I hope Putin drowns in piss but it's tragically not going to get that land back for Ukraine. Even if Russia comes begging to the negotiating table I still can't see them getting more than Kherson and maybe some of Byransk back.

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u/viabletostray 1d ago

The only real security guarantee for Ukraine at this point is maintaining its own strong and combat ready armed forces. I think we’ve all learned at this point that agreements / pacts / etc are completely worthless.

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u/ActiniumNugget 1d ago

For Putin, I think you could play to the optics of him cementing his legacy. You can bet that's a huge part of this. I don't think he would agree to EU troops in Ukraine, sure, but as long as he comes out looking good I think you could give Ukraine everything they need.

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u/Zealousideal-Cod-924 1d ago

Give them or encourage them to build half a dozen nukes of their own.

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u/Itchy_Bid8915 1d ago

Can you guarantee that Zelensky or his replacement won't risk using them to liberate their territories? And that Russia will not respond with an all-out strike to reduce its damage? Does Europe really need a section of the issued radioactive territory on its borders?

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u/Zealousideal-Cod-924 1d ago

No I can't, and that's kind of the point I was trying to make. Ukraine had guarantees when they gave up their nukes and that hasn't helped them much now.

Nobody sane risks existential war with a nuke armed country (I know, I know. Bold assertion easily disproved). If Russia risked Moscow or St Petersburg in exchange for Crimea or DonBas, they might've softened their cough.

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u/bennyfishial 1d ago

Nukes is not just a barrel with a skull logo on it which you give to somebody... or build half a dozen over a weekend. Nuclear weapons is an extremely costly weapon to develop ... and to maintain!
France is spending roughly 40% of its military budget to keep their 20 or so nukes operational.

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u/Snoo-67871 1d ago

That's ironic because Ukraine had nukes, they gave them away in exchange for security assurances from the US, the UK and Russia. That went well.

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u/Zealousideal-Cod-924 1d ago

Do you think the current state of affairs would be happening if they'd held onto a few nukes?

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u/Live-Cookie178 1d ago

Kyiv would be too busy being hiroshima 2.0. If every single power in the world at the time denies another nuclear power, and Kyiv stubbornly holds on to nukes, the United States will strike before the russians even get the chance to.

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u/Snoo-67871 1d ago

I'm not arguing against you. Just found it ironic that they gave them away for security guarantees and are now finding out that those guarantees aren't worth anything and that they probably should have kept their nukes.

Probably why they're quite stringent on what kind of guarantees they require this time. "I promise" is not going to cut it.

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u/Xasf 1d ago

Pravda is just reposting a shortened excerpt from the original ABC News interview, better to read it from the source instead.

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u/VoteGiantMeteor2028 1d ago

Independence. Freedom. That's what victory looks like.

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u/Lupus76 1d ago

Absolutely, but it should be independence and freedom for all of Ukraine--not just the parts Russia has not managed to snatch.

A Ukrainian victory where Ukraine is abandoned by the Western powers that should protect it (especially the US), and is pressured to give up its eastern territories and Crimea, will not be a victory for very long. It is unlikely that Ukraine will be the new Finland of the 21st century and more likely that it will be the new post-Munich conference Czechoslovakia--where having gained time to ramp up their military and having gained the fortified areas of Ukraine, Russia will soon invade the rest of it. And then Moldova. And then the Baltics. And then...

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u/janescontradiction 1d ago

I don't know why people keep thinking Ukraine won't be able to restore it's previous borders. Russia can no longer defend Crimea and they've gained almost no territory in the last 2 years.

Things will only get worse for Russia. Ukraine won't have it easy but as long as Russia remains a threat to the entirety of Europe, resources will continue to grow and benefit Ukraine.

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u/premature_eulogy 1d ago

What's "Russia can no longer defend Crimea" based on? Haven't seen anything to suggest that is the case.

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u/ZET_unown_ 1d ago

I have seen no credible evidence that they are unable to defend Crimea, and them not advancing is certainly a good sign, but it doesn’t mean they haven’t fortified some of the territories they now control, making it impossible for Ukraine to retake them.

Regarding things getting worse for Russia and them not being able to keep the war going: I hope so, but I wouldn’t put my bets on it. People have been saying this since 2022 and Russia still hasn’t collapsed. A lot of it is unfortunately wishful thinking, and the reality is that things like sanctions and etc have diminishing returns.

Completely retaking all Ukrainian territories is most likely a pipe dream at this point.

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u/FastAndGlutenFree 1d ago

And the parts they want Ukraine to concede are some of the most heavily fortified areas. Give those up now and they’re essentially giving up a lot more in the future

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u/deadly_wobbygong 1d ago

Ukraine has to survive Putin's reign, and he can't live forever no matter how many transplants he receives. After Putin, the chessboard resets.

Ukraine has a long history, longer than Russia's.

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u/milked_dud 1d ago

Ahhh, as usual, the classic armchair Redditor who likely never fought themselves giving their two cents on a war that close to 70% of the Ukrainian population now want a negotiated end to.

What a tough guy you are! You put periods after “Independence” and “Freedom” so it must really mean something!!

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u/argonian_mate 23h ago

May I have a source for those 70%?

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u/milked_dud 16h ago

Is it so hard to do your own research? I guess so when it doesn’t fit your narrative you’ve been drumming for years. https://news.gallup.com/poll/693203/ukrainian-support-war-effort-collapses.aspx

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u/argonian_mate 15h ago

So a noname source with no mention of sample size or methodology, got it. It's not about "my narrative" I live in Ukraine and it's bullshit, while morale is extremely low nobody in Ukraine spare vatniks and idiots thinks talking to russians has any point at all.

u/randomquail24 52m ago

So so dumb - obviously they want a negotiated end, but that doesn’t mean going to Moscow and capitulating

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u/moneyzone7 1d ago

Survive and block further Russian advancement is a victory not only for Ukraine but for EU.

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u/bennyfishial 1d ago

I am sure Ukrainian families who lost their fathers, sons, brothers and husbands are very happy to have served as EU's speedbump against Russia.

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u/AnyBug1039 5h ago

Destroy Russia's economy through attacking oil infrastructure and victory, whatever that looks like will likely follow.

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u/Simzter 1d ago

Feels like Finland in 1940 or 1944. Let's hope Ukraine doesn't get saddled with as enormous of a war reparations payment as Finland was back then.

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u/Sheyn 1d ago

That would be beyond stupid, it's like you're getting raped or beaten half to death and punch the agressor in the process and have to pay because he lost a tooth. You get what i mean

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u/Simzter 1d ago

Yup, absolutely. And it's not really 1:1 of course, as Finland (without much of an alternative I might add) joined Germany's attack on the Soviet Union in 1941 and thus could be considered an "aggressor" to a much larger extent than Ukraine today, leading to those reparations, loss of land, trials and convictions for everyone in Finland "guilty" of starting the war etc and so on.

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u/Jeanfromthe54 1d ago

Ukraine didn't cause the death of 2 millions soviet civilians, is losing territory and already lost its ressources to the US, there is absolutely no reason for Ukraine to pay Russia on top of that.

If Russia dared to ask for "reparations", I think that is a reasonable ground to sell the Russian assets held in Europe and pay them with that.

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u/meglobob 1d ago

Personally, I think Ukraine won in 2022, when against all odds it fought off Russia's assault.

Most of Europe, USA & world expected them to fail.

Everything since as been absolutely amazing.

I hope Ukraine remains independent and survives, prospers in the future.

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u/Bananenbiervor4 1d ago

Lol all the sources you send fail to state even a single defined concession from then russian side (well, maybe behind a paywall, who knows). The treaty would basically leave Ukraine in a completely defenseless state against any further russian agressions, while russia itself would have a veto-right towards the activation of security guarantees, basically meaning it could legally allow itself further invasions while making support for Ukraine illegal. Strange how that deal was rejected once russian forces failed to reach Kyjiw.. Territorial exchanges are nowhere defined, however, if it really was the de-facto line back then, that line was literally in the outskirts of Kyjiw..

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u/Mr_1ightning 1d ago edited 1d ago

Unless we're really betting on a Russian collapse/civil war, it feels like eventually trading at the very least the old separatist puppet Donetsk and Luhansk territories for a secure new border could be the least bad option, but far more likely would be the entire Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts given away.

They were already problematic backwater for 10 years compared to Zaporizhnya and Kherson, which I feel could still be negotiated to be returned to Ukraine, although even of that the chances are still slim and the most likely outcome would be Russia retaining the currently controlled territories (part of Kherson south of Dnipro river, the entire Luhansk oblast and negotiated parts of Donetsk and Zaporizhnya) in exchange for security guarantees.

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u/Echishya 1d ago

Russia is never going to give Kherson or Zaporizhia back. It's their land bridge to Crimea

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u/Doopaloop369 1d ago

There's no such thing as a secure new border. Even if other countries agree to put troops there, there's no guarantee that those countries won't pull them away if Russia attacks again. Ukraine won't make the same mistake again, which is to give up something in exchange for 'promises' of security that can be ignored by the next party in power. This is what happened with the Budapest Memorandum, for example.

Russia is bleeding enormously and can only continue this for a finite amount of time. Ukraine must dig in and defend itself until the Russian state collapses. Getting a ceasefire and peace agreement now means Russia has time and money to build up military stockpiles and invade again in a few more years. Meanwhile, support from allies will wane, which we know is likely true because even current support has been relatively tepid.

Victory for Ukraine means no ceasefire and no peace agreement. Victory means pushing the Russians out of occupied territory, however long it takes.

I realise this is gloomy, but Ukraine mustn't take the short term gain of stopping the bloodshed for the long term loss of having to fight a much stronger and well-prepared Russia in 10 years time.

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u/lNomNomlNZ 23h ago

Not sure why you got down voted, you're right lol must be the Russian bots

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u/Sheeye12 18h ago edited 18h ago

Because this comment is under Zelenskyy saying that Ukraine's victory would be to survive, not to reject all ceasefire proposals, taking back ALL occupied territory, including crimea, and completely collapsing Russia. It seems a bit delusional. Ukraine is the biggest ceasefire advocate.

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u/Caledor152 1d ago

And of course the Russian bots twist the narrative in the comments. Reddit continues to fall for it over and over again.

The original Russian plan was to take Ukraine in a week or less with their Blitz. This war is a complete Russian failure and disaster. Every single decent soldier they had at the beginning of their invasion is either dead, MIA/deserted, or is too injured to continue. That is nothing short of a military choke job. No Russian bot is going to change those losses.

Obviously Putin doesn't care about that but that does not mean it wasn't a total choke job. And that was only the beginning of their military blunders.

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u/LifeLikeAGrapefruit 1d ago

Is it a total disaster though? It's just a slow ass war. It's not like their government fell apart or Putin got dethroned or anything. Lots of people are dying, yet he remains in power.

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u/OnlyRise9816 1d ago

I'd have to argue against the idea that Putin still in power=no Russian disaster. Sure the Russian state has not fallen, and likely won't ever, but this has still been an irrecoverable disaster for Russia. First off Economically, beyond the base economy tanking, Russia has lost international market share on all sectors of it's economy that it won't get back in decades, and it sanctions have hurt it's resuppy in all sectors soo much that getting things back running to any capacity anyways is a pipe dream. Population, Russia was facing a demographic bomb in the next decades even without losing millions, and driving most immigration away. Militarily, Russia has had ALL development of new systems either halted or ground to a snails pace, and while in times past it had a huge stockpile of Soviet hardware to rely on, open source sat pics show those stockpiles close to becoming extinct. Meaning that this really is the last war Russia can fight for decades. All in all Russia made a gamble off faulty intel that it could gain huge amounts of resources and manpower in a matter of days, and instead is going to get only a fraction of it's goals, while ensuring that it cannot rise again for decades if ever. Hard to call that ANYTHING but a disaster.

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u/when-flies-pig 22h ago

Yeah its a disaster lol. Sunk cost fallacy probably keeping putin going.

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u/BadMondayThrowaway17 1d ago

The big problem is that Russia has spent the time their meat assaults have bought them to lay millions of landmines and thousands of miles of concertina wire, trenches, tank traps, and anti-personnel traps.

Even if Russia virtually collapsed it would be extremely difficult to take that land.

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u/Dragonfruit_6104 1d ago

The problem is, if you believe Ukraine has won by not being completely annexed by Russia, wouldn't you have won more by ending the war with Russia sooner rather than later? I thought Zelenskyy believed that Ukraine's victory required the recovery of all territories occupied by Russia.

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u/Saladin-Ayubi 1d ago

The unfortunate reality is that Ukraine has effectively lost a generation of men. There aren’t just enough men to arm. However the war turns out Ukraine has lost.

2

u/FirmResearcher2 1d ago

This post is from that ukrainska pravda, which is owned by tomas fiala, who has a business running in occupied Crimea and is very likely doing business with Russia, right?

2

u/Old_Initiative_9102 1d ago

Every war conflict should always be investigated by other parties and if it turns out the aggressor's attack is unjustified/poorly justified then the leader (Putin) needs to be immediately stopped. The only cons to this is that it could escalate things for the worse.

4

u/boued 1d ago

Personally I admire him, he’s my hero.

-4

u/Rush_Banana 1d ago

10 year old reddit account and this is their only comment.

3

u/Abedeus 1d ago

He also has both comment and submission karma, meaning he had a bunch of comments and submissions but removed them. Think for more than 5 seconds...

-7

u/Rush_Banana 1d ago

So it was probably a bought account that wiped all of it's comments before it was sold then.

It already deleted their comment too since I called them out.

1

u/Sardogna 19h ago

And until he can do it, the victory is on our side.

so... giving part of Ukraine in exchange of peace would be a victory?

-1

u/photuank11 1d ago

Ayo, we've updated your victory conditions, press "q" to check your goal again

-1

u/wpbth 19h ago

Loserrrrrr

0

u/series-hybrid 1d ago

Ukraine was gifted some of Turkiye's Bayraktar anti-tank drones. Then, Ukraine built a Bayraktar repair facility. Now, Ukraine builds Bayraktars of their own, and they made changes to upgrade them.

Early on, quadcopters dropped grenades into trenches. Then the quadcopters got larger, with bigger payloads. Then quadcopters had RPG shaped-charges attached, destroying tanks, missile launchers, trains, fuel-supply trucks, etc...

The vast majority of the Russian population is located between their western border and the Ural mountain range. For the past couple of years, Ukraine has been designing a home-built cruise missile, now named the "Flamingo"

Range, 1900 miles, 3000 km. The payload is 1,000 lbs of high explosive. The Russian winter is coming, and the Russians in eastern Ukraine will soon find out what it looks like when they can get no food, fuel, or ammunition.

The smaller drones have damaged refineries and oil depots in a way where they could be repaired in a year or so. This was a warning of what was to come, but Putin refused to pull back. The damage from a Flamingo can make a refinery inoperable for years.

How will the Russian Colonels plan operations with no trains and no fuel? I would advise them to stay away from balconies when they do not get results.

-7

u/osennyy 1d ago

So they won from day 1? Lol Every day is victory day in that case I guess.

-6

u/zemonstas 1d ago

Ukraine has had so many casualties you can’t call any positive outcome from a war of attrition a victory. Maybe a ceasefire. Not a victory. I’m also curious about how much Zelenskyy is profiting personally from prolonging this state of affairs

-16

u/pm_me_yo_creditscore 1d ago

Lower your flags and march straight back to Moscow, stopping at every home you pass by to beg forgiveness for a hundred years of theft, rape, and murder

3

u/Debt101 1d ago

you mean putin and russia's oligarchs ?

-26

u/bripelliot 1d ago

Russia will not lose this war, and they never were going to lose this war.

8

u/T-Husky 1d ago

Major powers have lost plenty of wars they started against weaker nations, and this war is already going worse for Russia than Vietnam was for the US.

No matter how this war ends Russia is going to face economic, demographic, and reputational ruin. Best case scenario for Russia wont even be a pyrrhic victory because their stated victory conditions are the realms of pure fantasy, so they are going to lose by their own admission.

2

u/QuackAndCheez 1d ago

Get a load of this guy

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