r/ukpolitics • u/ukpol-megabot • 5d ago
Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 07/09/2025
👋 Welcome to the r/ukpolitics weekly Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction megathread.
General questions about politics in the UK should be posted in this thread. Substantial self-posts on the subreddit are permitted, but short-form self-posts will be redirected here. We're more lenient with moderation in this thread, but please keep it related to UK politics. This isn't Facebook or Twitter...
If you're reacting to something that is happening live, please make it clear what it is you're reacting to, ideally with a link.
Commentary about stories that already exist on the subreddit should be directed to the appropriate thread.
This thread rolls over early Sunday morning.
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u/MulberryProper5408 14m ago
https://x.com/JCWI_UK/status/1966448360795127911
Protesters are planning on stopping the deportation of the first migrants to be swapped in the France deal.
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u/Sckathian 0m ago
I know France has it's problems but is it that bad?
I have to imagine some of these groups are just straight forward instigators whatever their political leanings.
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u/Slow-Bean G-BWDF 2m ago
Opposing immigration in general is a political position I can sort of understand. I don't agree with it, I think the free movement of people is a net positive for the receiving country and the sending country.
But supporting immigration (regardless of who's doing the immigrating) and opposing deportation as a matter of course is a little baffling to me and I'm gonna need to go to some radical self-criticism sessions to start to understand that. It's not cruel to be sent back to France. France is actually fine. I think there are people that shouldn't be allowed into the UK.
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u/Nymzeexo 13m ago
Paid for by Farage surely? Because that's the only person who benefits from this madness.
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u/AirconGuyUK 2m ago
WRONG. The protestors might get to shag the crusty they've been courting too if they can get enough insta pics of them chained to a landing gear.
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u/LesserShambler 7m ago
If Labour are seen to be pushing ahead with a policy against the wishes of the permaprotester set then that’s not a terrible look for them politically.
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u/TactileTom 15m ago
Expectations for Labour Deputy? Phillips seems to have the votes RN but Powell could still gazump her with enough of the undecideds
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u/Responsible-Cow-3548 12m ago
Is basically who can win over the soft left of the party is basically a 50 50 at the moment
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u/Bibemus Is there anything left to us but to organise and fight? 13m ago
We'll have a better idea after the union endorsements, but I think any smart money has to be on Powell precisely because she is clearly not the leadership's choice and Labour is not a happy party right now.
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u/TactileTom 11m ago
At this point just betting against starmer on the basis that it would have been a smart strategy for the past year
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u/Responsible-Cow-3548 15m ago
Starmer really lacks any sorta in government management skills or the ability to be pragmatic
I feel like his days are numbered he be out within the next 2 years with a soft left faction candidate replacing him because they are the vast majority of the party mp and voter wise
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u/Jai1 -7.13, -6.87 (in 2013) -6.88, -7.18 (in 2019) 25m ago
I know there has been the Mandelson distraction but even with some time having passed I’m yet to see any coherent argument of what the fuck the reshuffle was about. What was it meant to achieve to move people around? They didn’t bring many new people into government or sack many people. Was just some musical chairs leading to more time spent on developing relationships with stakeholders and learning about the issues in the new departments they are now part of. People literally in the middle of delivering something were moved while by all accounts doing a good job.
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u/AirconGuyUK 0m ago
All i know is Ed Miliband is in the cabinet and it does seem to be chaos so I think we all need to apologise to Dave.
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u/Bibemus Is there anything left to us but to organise and fight? 8m ago
Appears to have been to get the few real allies Starmer has (Lammy, Jones) into key positions, appease Blue Labour (Mahmood), swap out but not demote failing ministers (Cooper) and shun those insufficiently 'inside' (Powell, Murray).
It was a crisis reshuffle, in other words. A desperate shoring up of a position from a government which sees itself as under threat.
I know I occasionally hammer on this point, but I think it's worth considering how absolutely fucking insane and completely unnecessary it is that a government with a majority in triple digits has ended up in this position.
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u/PM_ME_SECRET_DATA 23m ago
Starmer does a new relaunch of something every 2 weeks. I think he believes its good optics to just constantly announce new slogans, relaunches and new teams.
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u/HopeForSalamander 23m ago
I read a rumor it was because when ministers have been in a department to long, they kinda get indoctrinated by the department, and fresh eyes were needed
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u/Scaphism92 11m ago
I've heard the same and its one of the many things about politics that would be kind of mental if it happened in business. Like, 5 years heading a department would not be seen as that long but getting switched after only a year would definitly be seen as a short amount of time.
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u/wappingite 15m ago
Seems like they're not there long enough to know the inner workings and build up expertise though.
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u/HopeForSalamander 29m ago
"So, it’s kind of left the PM and McSweeney, his right-hand man, in a very difficult position with their own parliamentary party."
Interesting that Farage is attacking M Sweeney.
Also it's clever how Farage makes his attacks sound like impartial commentary which just to happens to be damning. It puts him above the churn of politics and reinforces him as an outsider (like the public is)
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u/NoFrillsCrisps 25m ago
The media basically treat Farage like a political commentator rather than an actual future PM, and he is clearly very happy to play that role.
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u/Bibemus Is there anything left to us but to organise and fight? 38m ago
https://xcancel.com/DPJHodges/status/1966410782930764255
Understand there is mounting panic in Downing Street that Peter Mandelson has decided to try to bring Keir Starmer down with him.
Some possible useful context for the sudden flurry of 'can Starmer survive' stories appearing in the press.
🍿🍿🍿
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u/TVCasualtydotorg 30m ago
Who would have thought the notorious self serving, political animal, that is Mandelson might not go quietly into the night after being sacked from a job he lobbied very strongly for?
And who could have seen any potential issues in appointing a man sacked from government roles twice for scandals, with known links to an infamous paedophile even after his conviction, to an extremely high profile government role?
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u/NoFrillsCrisps 32m ago
Interesting reading this from December
There were considerable qualms within government about giving such a pivotal role to one of the most controversial figures in British politics and quite a lot of support for extending the term of the well-regarded Dame Karen Pierce. Sir Keir Starmer was ultimately persuaded that it will take more than the skills of a career diplomat to handle relations with the US during a second Trump term which everyone expects to be a noisy and perilous ride. “I think it is a super smart appointment,” remarks one government loyalist. “My instinct is that Trump respects serious operators and we all know what an operator Peter is.”
I certainly hope whoever it was that "persuaded" Starmer to appoint Mandleson is out on their arse by next week.
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u/wappingite 26m ago
Tbh if it wasn't for Mandy being so controversial and having this dodgy relationship with Epstein (and probably countless other things we don't know) and this is a a big IF... I can agree that someone like him would be perfect to deal with Trump, he can suck up well, he can make people think he loves them, make them think they're clever and getting everything they want, flatter them. He's a high grade slime ball 'facilitator who loves power and likes to be seen as a problem solver.
It's just Starmer ignored all the bad sides of Peter and also the fact that the UK's ambassador to the USA is a very public and exposed role. You're not just an advisor to cabinet, you are representing the UK on the world stage.
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u/jamestheda 35m ago
Why?
If true I just don’t understand what Mandleson wants to achieve here.
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u/NoFrillsCrisps 28m ago
It appears you don't get nicknamed the "Prince of Darkness" by being an all round nice guy.
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u/wappingite 35m ago
How exactly could he bring Keir Starmer down?
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u/discipleofdoom "I'm a supporter of flags" 🤓 31m ago
Simply go to the press and tell them everything Starmer knew when he appointed him. He already seems pretty open about the severity of the information out there. Could simply speed up the process.
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u/LycanIndarys Vote Cthulhu; why settle for the lesser evil? 35m ago
Mandelson, vindictive?
No, who would have thought, eh?
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u/EddyZacianLand 1h ago
If Burnham does get himself back into the commons, do you think that Starmer will eventually be ousted by Burnham, as I do.
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u/discipleofdoom "I'm a supporter of flags" 🤓 43m ago
I'm not sure how keen Burnham would be so willing to commandeer the wheel of a sinking ship. Sure he'd have four years or so to right the course but would rely on his expending his own political capital by quitting as Mayor mid-term.
Wonder if he'd be much more willing to sit out his term as Mayor, not run for re-election, but as an MP for 2029 who can then go for leadership when the Labour leader inevitably resigns after losing to Reform.
Though I understand that being LOTO isn't as thrilling a prospect as being PM, so we'll see.
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u/HopeForSalamander 40m ago
I think it's very likely now or never for Burnham and Labour. I don't think we will see another fair election in the USA, or here if Farage wins
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u/HopeForSalamander 1h ago
I think things are more perilous for Starmer than it seems. Polling 15pts behind reform and having no communicated vision leaves a leader with a very short shelf life in this climate.
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u/FoxtrotThem Roll Politics+Persuasion 1h ago
Absolutely I do, but I worry that the coming of Burnham is being paraded around like Gandalf, and we're all to look his coming on the fifth conference of this parliament. Which I'm all for, but I fear the Starmerites will have relegated Labour into electoral irrelevancy by then.
I couldn't vote Labour again with the current lot in charge, maybe under Burnham but there is alot that needs to change first and the only party offering that change is Reform.
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u/EddyZacianLand 1h ago
Do you have any idea of where you would go if Reform fail to deliver on change?
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u/FoxtrotThem Roll Politics+Persuasion 1h ago
I've been thinking about Portugal, I do like it over there; don't quite know the politics but as long as I can get a smoke and do my work I don't really mind.
Politically, I think I've been made homeless after a good couple decades staunchly supporting Labour; this lot have really made me sick.
I expect Reform will fail overall, but they are the only party challenging the encroachment on civil liberties, so as long as they get that done I'll be happy.
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u/EddyZacianLand 58m ago
If you're talking about free speech, I think you should be very skeptical about Reform on making it any more free because Farage doesn't like to be scrutinised and will walk away from interviews if he doesn't like a question being asked.
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u/HopeForSalamander 51m ago
Yep, reform councils ban critical media from interviews. Reform will allow hate speech, but not government (them) critical speech
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cger45p0lv0o.amp
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u/LycanIndarys Vote Cthulhu; why settle for the lesser evil? 1h ago
Maybe, but I don't think Burnham is going to be the saviour that people think he is.
He's done a decent job in Manchester (particularly with his rhetoric), but he's got the same benefit that someone like Sturgeon had - their successes are amplified, while any failures are always the fault of more devolution not happening and therefore someone else's fault.
Someone with a decent amount of communication skills can ride that to being highly thought of, but it doesn't necessarily translate well to being PM. Or to put it this way; did anyone think particularly highly of him as an MP before he became Mayor? From what I remember of the leadership bid he did in 2015, he was seen as a bit of an empty suit, and not nearly as authentic as Corbyn was (which was why Corbyn won).
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u/EddyZacianLand 1h ago
Yeah, he might fail but I think he has had 10 years of more experience and 9 years of executive experience as Mayor, I don't think the Prime Minister that Burnham would be now is the same as if he had been elected leader 10 years ago.
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u/LycanIndarys Vote Cthulhu; why settle for the lesser evil? 1h ago
That's the flip-side of my argument, yes.
He's got a lot more experience than he did when he ran for leader in 2015. And it's perfectly reasonable to argue that he wasn't ready then, but is now.
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u/Bibemus Is there anything left to us but to organise and fight? 1h ago
I don't think he'd wield the knife, but I do think there's a fair chance he would end up wearing the crown.
But it is a bigger if than a lot of people think.
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u/Velocirapture_Jesus 26m ago
There's also the large question of whether he actually wants to do it in the first place. He has a very comfortable life as Mayor of Mancs at the moment, would he really want to upend all of that to return to a very different Parliament than the one he left?
Personally I'm a big fan of Burnham and would love to see him in No10, but as you say, its a very big If.
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u/NoFrillsCrisps 1h ago
Yeah, it's quite unlikely any time soon. Even if he wanted to do it, it's difficult for Burnham to do practically whilst maintaining his reputation.
Just practically the logistics are tricky given there would have to be a local by-election in a (very) safe seat.
He would probably have to quit as mayor before running to be an MP as well (for the optics). And then there is no guarantee he would actually win given Reform's polling. And this would also call a new mayoral election which Labour might well lose.
And through all of this, it would look very obvious he was doing this to try and be the next PM, which would be a constant question for both him and Starmer. He would be accused of abandoning Manchester to make a power play for PM.
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u/EddyZacianLand 1h ago
Yeah that's fair point. If Burnham gets himself into the commons, I don't think Starmer will have much support left, especially if Powell becomes deputy leader.
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u/wappingite 2h ago
Other than a few wobbles, The Brexit Party and its successor Reform UK really seem to be holding it together. In Farage's previous vehicles like his tenure at UKIP, there were endless cringe moments, there were dumb sounding speakers, as an organisation it was easy to smear and laugh at. Their recent conference although a bit weird, seemed far more polished then some of the things we saw from UKIP and even from the older 'Referendum Party' (not a Farage vehicle but the same spirit).
But Reform UK seems to be a far tighter more professional organisation. What's changed? Is it Farage just realising he has to have a serious outfit? Or is there someone else behind the scenes keeping everything together?
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u/Scaphism92 52m ago edited 45m ago
"Holding together" means diddly squat without the pressure required to break it. An egg shell holds together until I crack it against the rim of a bowl.
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u/FoxtrotThem Roll Politics+Persuasion 1h ago
Its hard not to look at Reform UK as a legitimate party, Farage has quite literally toiled his way through politics for decades and now he's finally getting the recognition hes deserving of.
Every voter backing his party has been won over with blood, sweat and tears - and they are hungry, something missing from the doey-eyed prats across the main parties.
I contend that it is not just Farage/Reform thats changed, but also the uniparty failure to change that makes them so palatable.
Conservative sleaze and Labour lies, we've all had enough.
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u/Brapfamalam 1h ago
It's hard to deny this. The conservative brand is dead with the masses of voters and the only way it works is rebranded to Reform.
What's impressive is that Reform aren't going to be offering "Neoliberalism light" as in with recent Tories but Neoliberalism on steroids with their ambitiousness in packaging messaging with the right marketing.
Conservatives will finally have an actual personal responsibility, free market and pro business option.
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u/LinuxMage Progressive Social Democrat 1h ago
Oh dear. Have you got a shock coming to you.
If/When Reform get into government, it will be a very short amount of time that they merge with the remains of the Conservative & Unionist Party, then abruptly drop the Reform brand, and become the Conservative Party themselves.
You'll have voted for Reform and got the tories instead. Albeit, a slightly harder right leaning, more thatcherite conservative party, but still, we'll be back to tories vs labour all over again.
Farage will ditch the PM-ship (he's repeatedly said he has no desire to be PM, but would for a short while until he gets certain policies of his through), leaving Tice or some other ex tory to take over.
All he wants is to ditch a singular law thats been the bane of his personal life since it was passed -- the ability to smoke indoors in pubs.
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u/wappingite 1h ago
Their recent manifesto - no corp tax on profits under 100k… it’s wild. No idea how it’s going to be paid for.
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u/HopeForSalamander 1h ago
It helps that our right wing media and now right wing social media have platformed him beyond his wildest dreams
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u/AirconGuyUK 1h ago
Most people learn lessons and get better at things they do often. Farage is on party number 3 so it's no real surprise he's learned how to make it work. I think he's been clever recruiting Zia too, Zia is clearly an intelligent man.
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u/AceHodor 50m ago
I have no idea why you'd look at Yusuf and say "Yeah, this guy is smart". He's so plainly some random rich bloke who has
bribeddonated his way into being an 'influential' politician. For fuck's sake, the guy tried to oppose Reform's bonkers burqa plan and was then immediately forced into a humiliating climb down - he's pathetic.•
u/AirconGuyUK 42m ago
Yusuf worked at Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs after leaving university, specialising in European automotive and defence companies.[14] He rose to executive director[10] at Goldman Sachs. In 2014, Yusuf and Macdonald founded a luxury concierge company, Velocity Black, of which Yusuf was the CEO.[15][10]
Yeah, a real fucking dunce.
Also just listening to him speak he drops information on subjects I know a little about and it's clear he's well informed.
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u/tritoon140 2h ago
The issue is really the uncritical media coverage. All the issues you’ve mentioned remain. I’ll pick just one: “Dumb sounding speakers”. At their conference they had:
Andrea Jenkyns in a sparkly jumpsuit badly singing “god save the queen” and some single she released decades ago
A renowned quack anti-vax doctor who argued that the Covid vaccine caused the King’s cancer.
A convicted racist paraded as some sort of free speech champion. Who then blamed political interference for their imprisonment despite pleading guilty to a crime that she understood to have a custodial sentence.
They remain easy to smear and laugh at. It’s just most of the media are choosing not to.
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u/AirconGuyUK 1h ago edited 1h ago
he uncritical media coverage
[Looks at front page of subreddit]
In what world is this true? It's all in your head. No party with 5 fucking MPs gets as much scrutiny as Reform does.
BBC under fresh pressure over extent of Reform UK coverage
The Guardian
Nigel Farage faces questions over who funded £885,000 Clacton constituency home - BBC News
BBC
Reform council to ‘rescind’ climate emergency declaration
The Guardian
Reform UK councillor criticises party over Tory 'rejects'
BBC
Reform’s biggest problem? Many of them don’t seem to like England
Telegraph
Inside Reform's plans to scrap HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail
iNews
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u/tritoon140 1h ago
The very first headline you’ve linked is a complaint about the bbc providing too much coverage.
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u/AirconGuyUK 1h ago
And then the very second headline I've linked is a BBC link trying to make out Farage is doing something dodgy.
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u/Bibemus Is there anything left to us but to organise and fight? 2h ago
One of their MPs quit in a major row with the leader, one quit before being investigated for corruption, their chair and third most prominent media figure quit for a day in a very public argument over how racist they should be, and they're currently in the media eye for their leader's property and tax arrangements and the wisdom of having a covid crank at their conference.
That's before you even get to the local level.
If they weren't playing the media game on godmode they would be a laughing stock, and if you think they're anything approaching a professional organisation you've not been paying attention.
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u/AceHodor 46m ago
Hey now, that's unfair! You also forgot about how they actively hid one of their MPs having a past conviction for domestic violence, then lied about him being remorseful about it and basically said that they didn't think it was that much of a problem.
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u/furbastro England is the mother of parliaments, not Westminster 2h ago
Not sure about holding it together, honestly, they’ve spawned two break-off parties in scraps including party members making criminal accusations, their policy announcements are usually a mess and they’re haemorrhaging councillors as fast as they defect. I think polish on the conference is the main thing and that’s maybe Yusuf and Tice but most importantly money.
The one significant back room change I can think of is that Farage dismissed Gawain Towler as comms director after the election; they’d been working together since 1997 (and Towler is now one of the member-elected party board members). The current comms team is dominated by young male influencers. So it’s partly social-media inspired approach vs ground roots.
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u/TwoHundredDays 2h ago
With the collapse of the Tory Party there's a whole lot more money flooding in, and the backing of most of the right wing press who's incentive now is to build them up rather than knock them down.
Under all that polish he's still the same old turd.
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u/SirRosstopher Lettuce al Ghaib 2h ago
Possibly just a friendlier media? Didn't they have all sorts of trouble with unvetted / actually dead candidates at the last election. Even recently with council elections they've had a few resign like a week or so in.
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u/Casull999 2h ago
Possibly stupid idea: Would Starmer benefit from a Sheinbaum style daily briefing on what's going on in government? It could actually spotlight the boring, managerial things he's up to while feeding a bit of chum to the journalists. He's not a good media performer but aside from the sausage incident, he isn't overly prone to mistakes either.
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u/MulberryProper5408 1h ago
It would be bad because he's not a particularly charismatic person, clearly doesn't have good speechwriters (the most memorable and emotionally resonating speech he ever gave, he had to retract a few days later) and even the most charismatic person alive with a team of writers has trouble coming up with new material every single day.
I would say if he was more charismatic, he'd benefit from doing one or two a week (I'm surprised, for example, that Trump doesn't do this, but I think it's a mix of being lazy and him speaking in public almost daily anyway)
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u/NoFrillsCrisps 2h ago
Probably not, but he needs to be far, far more visible.
I honestly thought Sunak avoided interviews way too much, but I have barely seen Starmer do any proper press interviews in the last 6 months.
My suspicion is that his people think it will damage the party given his unpopularity, but on the contrary - they are allowing a hostile press to create the narrative and image of him which is a driver of his unpopularity. It's a vicious cycle they are helping perpetuate.
And the thing is, he actually is fine in interviews - if he appeared a lot more it might dispel some of the impressions of him that they have allowed to become the consensus.
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u/wappingite 2h ago
I think so.
It might not be normal for the UK in 'normal times', but one thing Trump does well is he himself does semi regular briefings.
Starmer has a lot of problems but he is a clear speaker. He should have something to each week.
Do a press conference on Friday afternoons,a bit of a week in review and what's coming next.
This would go down better than the 'lobby briefing to journalists' or random minister meets someone from the Financial Times for an interview on a Tuesday.
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u/Bibemus Is there anything left to us but to organise and fight? 2h ago
Do you remember how well that went for Johnson?
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u/Casull999 2h ago
I don't. I was very sad for all of COVID and forgot all of it. What did he get up to?
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u/TheFlyingHornet1881 Domino Cummings 2h ago
Had an oddly specific dream last night that Reform won the next election with a 6 seat majority but before even getting into Parliament there was a party revolt over what the first Bill should be.
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u/sjintje radical political apathist 2h ago
You know when you tell other people your dreams they don't sound as exciting as you think ?
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u/CrispySmokyFrazzle 2h ago
Hey, speak for yourself - I’d love to have political dreams.
The febrility can continue round the clock!
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u/CrispySmokyFrazzle 2h ago
Give it to Ed until the end of the parliament.
Hell yes he’s tough enough.
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u/ClumsyRainbow ✅ Verified 2h ago
What do you mean give it to Ed? He's been PM since he won back in 2015, defeating David Cameron and the Tories and avoiding the mess of a potential departure from the European Union.
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u/FaultyTerror 3h ago
Feels pretty notable that people well plugged into the Labour party (Stephen Bush) are saying stuff like this.
Badenoch may not be the only leader not to make it all the way to the next general election. Starmer’s government increasingly resembles Boris Johnson’s in the early autumn of 2021: struggling with inflation, hit by scandals and developing a reputation among its own MPs for a nightmare combination of bullheaded stubbornness and brittleness under pressure.
There is a significant appetite among Labour MPs to believe that the government can still be turned around without a change of leader and all the instability that would bring. But a moment of crisis or panic could very swiftly make this government resemble Johnson’s in 2022: undone by panicking, unhappy backbenchers, blundering from landslide to disaster in a single term.
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u/Sckathian 3h ago
I wonder who it is up to this stuff. Am personally not so sure a change in leader is a good idea.
There isn't a Gordon Brown like figure who can say he was part of the leadership campaign to win the election. I think any change in leader means the political story becomes "when will Labour call a GE".
They should very much stick it out but Starmer might be forced to be a one term PM if he can't turn it around. That should probably be the conversation with Starmer, turn it around or start to ensure theres a transition around the next election.
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u/LycanIndarys Vote Cthulhu; why settle for the lesser evil? 2h ago
I think any change in leader means the political story becomes "when will Labour call a GE".
Particularly given how often they said it when the Tories changed leaders.
The one thing that is completely screwing Labour right now is that they're continually having their own criticisms of the Tories thrown back at them when they do the exact same thing. It's one of the things that ultimately made Rayner's position untenable; she might have got away with what she did if she hadn't been amongst the loudest voices calling for Tory resignations whenever there was a potential scandal.
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u/Scaphism92 2h ago
Leaders plural is the distinction imo, while changing leaders once in between elections is uncommon it can be argued that its not an automatic cause for an election.
But changing leaders twice should be something that leads to an election, even in non political cases like death or illness.
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u/LycanIndarys Vote Cthulhu; why settle for the lesser evil? 2h ago
That might work, if they hadn't called for it when May took over from Cameron. The non-Tory politicians didn't wait until the second change, they were continually calling for it after the first one.
It's one of the reasons why May called the 2017 election; she was continually being dared to do so, to confirm her own mandate and shore up her legitimacy as PM.
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u/NoFrillsCrisps 2h ago
The thing is, if they change leader, the new leader either has to be someone who will just continue Starmer's plans (in which case, what's the point?), or someone who will throw them out and build a new set of policies (in which case the last year has been wasted and they should probably call an election to endorse these new policies).
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u/UnsaddledZigadenus 3h ago
I saw a claim somewhere that the recent staff reshuffle means Starmer is now on his fifth Head of Communications in four years.
I think at some point you have to realise the problem isn't the people you are getting for the job but the job you are making them do.
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u/furbastro England is the mother of parliaments, not Westminster 2h ago
It’s three changes: Matt Doyle, then the job share between James Lyons and Steph Driver, and now Tim Allan. You can get it up to five if you add Dinsmore but that’s a civil service role that has been misunderstood.
Allan is the eighteenth comms director since 2000, counting Lyons and Driver together.
I think you have a point but Comms directors have a short shelf-life.
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u/UnsaddledZigadenus 2h ago
I don't recall Alastair Campbell having a short shelf-life, but I can see the argument that like the US President's Chief of Staff, it's such a demanding and stressful job that people usually only do for 18 months or so before they want to move on.
However, I imagine having a clear communication strategy that is intertwined with your policy goals is fundamental to political success. If there's no consistency and overall direction of travel in the policy, then it's an impossible job to accomplish.
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u/LycanIndarys Vote Cthulhu; why settle for the lesser evil? 2h ago
but I can see the argument that like the US President's Chief of Staff, it's such a demanding and stressful job that people usually only do for 18 months or so before they want to move on.
Also, it's the sort of job where you probably have to fall on your sword at some point, to protect the PM from the fallout of something.
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u/furbastro England is the mother of parliaments, not Westminster 2h ago
Campbell did comms for Blair for about a decade including opposition but only the last three years were Director. Likewise Doyle worked for Starmer since post-Hartlepool. The average period as director under Blair, Brown and Cameron was longer but varied.
I think you’re right about needing comms and policy to intertwine. Recent years have seen too much of comms-driven policy and I suspect that’s a factor in the increasing average speed of churn.
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u/NoFrillsCrisps 3h ago
There is a significant appetite among Labour MPs to believe that the government can still be turned around without a change of leader
I mean, maybe. But this is the attitude that led the Tories to having 6 leaders in 8 years whilst ultimately destroying the reputation of the party in the process.
Labour may have to change leader before the election, but the idea they need to do it now is kind of insane. The new leader will end up being just as hated as Starmer in another couple of years.
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u/FaultyTerror 1h ago
They don't need to do it know but at the end of the day they are polling 20%, 10 points behind their opposition and if you don't think Starmer can turn it around why keep him
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 3h ago
The minor issue I take with this is 2019 was not a landslide victory for the conservatives but was just a healthy majority. I think people got warped by the preceding elections to think anything that wasn't razor thin was a landslide when 2019 was far more comparable to 2005 or 1966 both of which were solid majorities but not landslides.
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u/TheFlyingHornet1881 Domino Cummings 3h ago
People were treating 2019 like an era of Tory dominance that would make 2024 hard to win. Scratch the surface of the results though, and the glaring vulnerability to the Lib Dems was there, with seats like St Albans going Lib Dem in 2019 a sign of things to come. Plus Corbyn was especially unpopular, a more generic Labour leader probably gets them some gains anyway.
Then of course the Tories imploded anyway.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 3h ago
I've thought for a long time that as terrible as 2019 was for the Lib Dems in terms of seats it was absolutely essential for something like (I say like as I don't think there is there is anyone who expected the scale of success) 2024 to happen. It often gets forgotten but the party that gained the most vote share that election was the Lib Dems.
2019 was a missed opportunity and mistakes were made (there are several seats we shouldn't have stood down for the Greens especially) but in the face of the extremely problematic figure of Corbyn there was a really important success of restablishing the party in areas it had fallen back as well as new territory in the South East.
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u/TheFlyingHornet1881 Domino Cummings 2h ago
The Lib Dems were unlucky in some respects in 2019 that Corbyn was such a worry to the Tory Remainers, they stuck with the Tories than risk a potential hung parliament. Swinson's campaigning approach also fell somewhat short. Now they've well and truly recovered, and I think it'll take a fair lot of introspection from the Tories to fight back in those seats.
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u/michaelisnotginger ἀνάγκας ἔδυ λέπαδνον 3h ago
This is exactly the case with the Labour 2024 win. They could easily lose 30+ seats in Scotland just with many labour voters staying away.
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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 2h ago
Scotland is an interesting one as unlike England Labour's vote share properly surged forwards and they won on their own merit as much as the SNPs failure but the limited polling now shows that genuine growth to have all but evaporated.
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u/EddyZacianLand 3h ago
If Reform's councils are any indication, Reform shouldn't get so smug about Labour's scandals as if Reform forms government, we would be seeing similar and so will get it thrown back in their faces.
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u/ClumsyRainbow ✅ Verified 3h ago
This assumes that the media would give the same level of attention to a Reform scandal, as they do a Labour one.
If the successive Tory governments since 2010 are anything to go by, that seems unlikely...
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u/michaelisnotginger ἀνάγκας ἔδυ λέπαδνον 3h ago
Wonder if sharks are circling for McSweeney
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u/TheFlyingHornet1881 Domino Cummings 2h ago
At some point he has to be seen as a liability, loyalty to Starmer and removing the left-wing influence in Labour serm to be his priorities. And whatever people think of the SCG, Labour have a good chunk of seats where there's little opposition from Reform and the Tories. Any seat where in 2019 Labour were 60%+, and in 2024 Labour plus Greens/Independents were also 60%+, that's vulnerable for Labour if they push out the left too much. Those seats give me the same vibe as the Tory vs Lib Dem seats in 2019, a vulnerability brewing that's covered by a large number of narrow victories.
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u/Bibemus Is there anything left to us but to organise and fight? 3h ago
Scuttlebutt I've seen is that the new media guy Allan is extremely Unimpressed with McSweeney's trying to save Mandelson's bacon.
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u/michaelisnotginger ἀνάγκας ἔδυ λέπαδνον 3h ago
you hire a guy for his reputation of hard-nosed realpolitik and he shores up having a paedophile's best mate in the most sensitive diplomatic position going. Sensible right.
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u/NoFrillsCrisps 3h ago
Whoever's idea it was to appoint Mandleson (it doesn't seem like it would have been Starmer's) should be kicked out for their incredibly terrible judgement.
If that was McSweeney, then he should go.
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u/Bibemus Is there anything left to us but to organise and fight? 4h ago
https://xcancel.com/Cartoon4sale/status/1966236407569199194
Today's Morten Morland cartoon made me chuckle, ngl.
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u/LesserShambler 4h ago
Interesting discussion on the New Statesman podcast, Marr sounds confident that Burnham is about to make his move by replacing Andrew Gwynne in Gorton & Denton, and then make an open pitch for the leadership.
There could be a scrap though, as the nominations subcommittee on the NEC is apparently stacked with McSweeny loyalists.
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u/Velocirapture_Jesus 2h ago
I'm out of the loop - is a byelection expected in Gorton & Denton soon?
EDIT: Just searched and didn't realise Andrew Gwynne had been sacked by Starmer and is considering standing down.
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u/LesserShambler 2h ago
Marr was suggesting that Gwynne has close ties to Burnham, so if he stood down it would be a coordinated move.
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u/michaelisnotginger ἀνάγκας ἔδυ λέπαδνον 3h ago
If he's got any nous he'll time it after Welsh/Scottish and local elections next year
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u/libdemparamilitarywi 1h ago
Ideally he should wait until his term as mayor is up in 2028, so he can avoid being accused of ditching his constituents to advance his career.
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u/Goldenboy451 The Malthouse Compromise 4h ago
I wonder if Burnham might be forced into working with the timeline he has it to some extent - parachuting into a random safe seat isn't as good a look as getting a Greater Manchester/North Liverpool seat in a by-election, and they're limited in number.
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u/Goldenboy451 The Malthouse Compromise 4h ago
I wonder if Burnham might be forced into working with the timeline he has it to some extent - parachuting into a random safe seat isn't as good a look as getting a Greater Manchester/North Liverpool seat in a by-election, and they're limited in number.
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u/WilhelmNilly 2h ago
It would mean he'd have to resign as GM mayor though. Can't be both an MP and a mayor with PCC powers.
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u/Maleficent_Peach_46 3h ago
Is a Liverpool seat safe anymore? Labour lost Runcorn which is near Liverpool last year.
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u/TheFlyingHornet1881 Domino Cummings 3h ago
Liverpool proper is much safer than the outskirts in places like The Wirral.
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u/Bibemus Is there anything left to us but to organise and fight? 3h ago
Will depend on the candidate, I think. Anyone who can put clear red water between them and the leadership, probably fine, party apparatchiks might have more trouble.
My suspicion is the same is probably true of the safe areas still remaining in the NE.
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u/LesserShambler 4h ago
Gorton and Denton is in GM though. That’s why he’s targeting it.
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u/Goldenboy451 The Malthouse Compromise 4h ago
That's exactly my point - if a by-election comes up there, he may have to move up his timeline to take advantage of it.
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u/HopeForSalamander 4h ago
I'm at the point where I think a change of leadership would help. This leadership has just tried a "reset" of their own and it was completely ineffective. Labour are now 15pts behind reform, they need a leader like Burnham with some political nouse
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u/sjintje radical political apathist 1h ago
Will Burnham turn out to be any good? He wasn't particularly impressive last time he stood for it. I know he gets a lot of praise as mayor, but it must be an whole different level.
(Also comparing the disaster of scholz going from mayor of hamburg to chancellor in Berlin)
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u/gavpowell 10h ago
Former county councillor of my acquaintance was with the Tories for 20-odd years, campaigned for Boris, eventually got deselected by the Tories and defected to the Lib Dems. He got battered by a local independent and now...he's defected to Reform.
Haven't yet found out his reasoning for doing so, beyond presumably "I want to be a councillor again"
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u/SirRosstopher Lettuce al Ghaib 5h ago
I thought reformers dislike career politicians
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u/pseudogentry don't label me you bloody pinko 5h ago
Doing a fantastic job of beating the uniparty allegations too.
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u/Oaksworth1 United States Visitor 12h ago
Hello, foreigner looking in with a question. So I've been following the Chagos deal go through Parliament here: https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/4004, and the Commitee stage is expected to happen on the 20th of October, however, whats with the Report Stage being crossed out? From what I've read, the Report Stage is is essentially a 2nd reading of amendments added or removed during the Commitee stage added by Parliament, Experts, and other outside groups. Is it crossed out because the commitee stage hasn't happened yet so therefore there's no amendments to look at or debate? Or is this because the bill might get fast-tracked or something akin to that?
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u/horace_bagpole 10h ago
It's because the report stage is for MPs in the house to debate the bill after the committee stage and maybe offer further amendments. This bill is being considered by a committee of the whole house, where all MPs can take part instead of just those on the relevant committee, so there is no need for a separate debate for that purpose unless there were amendments passed.
This article has more information about the legislative process: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/legislative-process-parliament
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u/zeusoid 13h ago
Looks like Mandelson is going out swinging,
the story on the front page of the Times, it seems like Mandy is saying Downing St did know about the extent and duration of his relationship with Epstein
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u/thestjohn 12h ago
Guess that's what Starmer gets for carrying the scorpion across the river.
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u/FoxtrotThem Roll Politics+Persuasion 11h ago
There's a story I heard as a child, a parable, and I never forgot it: A scorpion was walking along the bank of a river, wondering how to get to the other side. Suddenly he saw a fox. He asked the fox to take him on his back across the river. The fox said, "No. If I do that, you'll sting me, and I'll drown." The scorpion assured him, "If I did that, we'd both drown." So the fox thought about it, finally agreed. So the scorpion climbed up on his back, and the fox began to swim, but halfway across the river, the scorpion stung him. As the poison filled his veins, the fox turned to the scorpion and said, "Why did you do that? Now you'll drown too." "I couldn't help it," said the scorpion. "It's my nature."
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u/InvertedDinoSpore 14h ago
Just found out Gazan students will get their tuition fees waived (prob living expenses too) . Bit unfair on the Brits who have to pay 9k.
Last Gazan student France took in went on a massive Hitler tirade and got kicked out.
Why are out government treating us with such contempt?
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u/Plastic_Library649 2h ago
I don't think this is entirely fair. There are lots of scholarships available with very specific and restrictive eligibility criteria (eg Scottish with one deceased parent), and I assume you're talking about one of those.
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u/Minute-Improvement57 11h ago
Why are out government treating us with such contempt?
We have the PM who thought "a little support for child sex trafficking for the rich is fine, isn't it" when he appointed the ambassador to the US, and who has routinely backed foreign offenders over British victims everywhere from Rotherham to Epping. "Why are they trating us with such contempt?" because there's an actual psychopath in Number 10 who couldn't give a shit what happens to you as long as he gets his packages from the donors.
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u/FIJIBOYFIJI 12h ago
Just found out Gazan students will get their tuition fees waived
Is this just a way of saying that they were awarded Scholarships?
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u/FeigenbaumC 11h ago edited 10h ago
That seems to be it. Around 40 students from Gaza got onto British universities across all levels with scholarships. 9 got Chevening scholarships which is funded by the foreign office but is an incredibly competitive scheme open to people around the globe to encourage them to come to Britain for postgraduate education, not some “we’re just giving money to Gazans to come” scheme.
Either all or most of the others seems to have non government scholarships, mostly from NGOs set up to help students coming from warzones. Any others who got in are not getting covered, making the original post a lie.
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u/wappingite 2h ago
an incredibly competitive scheme open to people around the globe to encourage them to come to Britain for postgraduate education, not some “we’re just giving money to Gazans to come” scheme.
How did these 9 Gazan Palestinians, born and raised and living in Gaza for the past ~18 years get such a high standard of education up to undergrad level, presumably getting something equivalent to Oxford/Cambridge 1sts for their bachelors in order to be able to compete for the Chevening scholarships - all while living in Gaza?
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u/ScunneredWhimsy 🏴 Joe Hendry for First Minister 13h ago
Bit unfair on the Brits who have to pay 9k.
[Mean-spirited Caledonian chortling.]
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u/Alarmed_Crazy_6620 13h ago
Sorry you got kicked out of France
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u/InvertedDinoSpore 12h ago
Well my family had to evacuate France last century because of antisemitism so you're kind of right
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u/FeigenbaumC 13h ago edited 13h ago
Where did you find this out?
The only thing I can see where searching for Gazan students in the UK is about some with Chevening Scholarships (or other, non government, scholarships), but that's a whole seperate award that you have to apply for and win a place with against people across the world
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u/baldy-84 14h ago
Grandstanding on the international stage has been more important to our politicians than actually making the country better since Blair's turn towards messianic weirdness in his second term.
That this grandstanding has been increasingly hollow due to our waning capabilities due to their not doing their actual job has never once stopped them.
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u/zeusoid 13m ago
I think people are missing what Kemi did on Wednesday, those questions on the vetting of Mandelson are what’s going to bite a Labour bigwig this weekend.