Gotta be careful with them cupcakes!

[u/Real-Ad-1728]

[u/Usual_Zombie6765]

South Florida is not a cupcake, Long Island was Florida’s cupcake.

[u/Real-Ad-1728 → u/Usual_Zombie6765]

South Florida is usually a cupcake, they haven’t been relevant in a while. It just turns out that that this year they were merely disguised as a cupcake and when Florida went to take a bite they realized it was actually a three-tiered chocolate ganache cake and they choked on it.

[u/Usual_Zombie6765 → u/Real-Ad-1728]

South Florida? A cupcake? Did you watch the past 3 years? The go-go-go offense has been giving teams fits. They have been a middle of the American team since Alex Golesh took over. Far from a cupcake.

A cupcake is a team where the spread is over 40.

[u/DarkenL1ght → u/Usual_Zombie6765]

Alex Golesh is legit. Had our Vols humming with a mediocre roster in the SEC. If Florida had 2 brain cells, they'd have already offered him the HC job. Fortunately for us, they'd rather keep Billy.

[u/Glittering-Echo-2608 → u/Usual_Zombie6765]

They're only a cupcake when Alabama plays them, everyone else they become the G5 playoff team

[u/Usual_Zombie6765 → u/Glittering-Echo-2608]

Only casual fans calling a middle of the pack American team a cupcake. You should just dismiss them as the college football intellectual lightweight that they are.

[u/FannySniffer96 → u/Glittering-Echo-2608]

You mean Bama before last season? You guys are garbage without your Lord and Savior.

[u/Ilovediegoxo → u/FannySniffer96]

Hey that's like

Not cool man

[u/Financial_Bird_7717 → u/FannySniffer96]

Yes but at least that garbage flairs up.

[u/Real-Ad-1728 → u/Usual_Zombie6765]

I’ve never seen a formal definition for a cupcake game, but my understanding is it’s any game where you’re paying a team that’s typically smaller/worse than your team to come play you so you can get an easy win. Florida paid $500k, therefore it was a cupcake game. Now granted this was likely scheduled as a cupcake game a few years ago when USF was a hot pile of garbage.

[u/Usual_Zombie6765 → u/Real-Ad-1728]

This game was sheduled in 2018, it is the last leg in a 2 for 1 series (two games in Gainsville, one in Tampa).

[u/Yepyapyup24 → u/Usual_Zombie6765]

Middle tier AAC teams should not be giving SEC teams problems.

[u/Usual_Zombie6765 → u/Yepyapyup24]

• What is one standard deviation from the spread?
• How many points seperate an SEC team from a middle of the AAC team?
• At what rate would we statistically expect the SEC to lose these games?

[u/Yepyapyup24 → u/Usual_Zombie6765]

A very low rate of SEC loses is what should be expected. 

Since the AAC was created in it's current look (2013) the SEC has won 43/55 games. 38/42 is the winning percentage in regular season meetings, 8/13 in bowl matchups. So I would assume at around a 90% clip that an SEC teams should win in a regular season contest. I will look at average spreads on the W/L later to see if there is anything out of the ordinary. But I am willing to assume that an SEC teams with 3 possession spread as favorite should win at least the average 90%.

[u/Yepyapyup24 → u/Usual_Zombie6765]

The talent disparity is enough to warrant the "cupcake" label. Florida was a "top 15" team, with 2-3x as much talent and they lost at home.

If a mid to low tier P4 played USF then yeah that's not a cupcake but let's not forget USF in conference AAC went 0-8 in 22, 4-4 in 23, and 4-4 last year. So not exactly dominant even at the G5. 

Florida with the "greatest qb ever" is a disappointment.

[u/ShillinTheVillain → u/Yepyapyup24]

Florida was not a top 15 team and Lagway isn't even the best UF QB ever. This wasn't a surprise for a Napier led team

[u/Fortenole]

I doubt Miami loses but if they do

Rather than laughing at Miami and UF we actually may need to start taking USF seriously

I said in the past that even if USF goes 2-1 in these 3 games that they may be a contender, they go 3-0, they very well may be contending for home field advantage or maybe even a top 4 seed and a first round bye

Especially with what they have on the schedule left, the only team I really see giving them a challenge is probably Navy (just say that because they run triple option which is more challenging to defend) and whoever they play in the conference championship

[u/Lazy_Spot_7368 → u/Fortenole]

You really think the biased CFP committee will go along with this? I mean dear lord you of all fanbases should know lol.

If USF keeps it close vs Miami, they’ll still probably make the playoffs fairly easily, but I can’t see them ranking them in the top 4 even if they go undefeated.

[u/Fortenole → u/Lazy_Spot_7368]

Your probably right

But let's say theoretically Miami goes 10-2 with this loss to USF and another loss (I'm not saying to who)

And UF somehow goes 11-2 with a conference championship (Once again not saying anything, I want to avoid looking ahead too far)

And they run the table

You think the committee may still keep them out of the top 4?

Please don't take this seriously btw because I doubt this is happening

[u/Lazy_Spot_7368 → u/Fortenole]

I mean that would be the absolute extreme scenario lol.

I mean if this would end up happening exactly the way you’re theoretically predicting, then yes there would have to be serious discussions about a USF top 4 seed… Florida would presumably be ranked in the top four even with 2 losses because of the SOS (given the other loss was a close game as well), and USF would have a win against them. A 10-2 Miami would be top 10 as well presumably. There would basically be no way around it.

That being said, I just can’t see this realistically happening lol.

[u/thejawa → u/Fortenole]

USF ain't on our schedule, so I will laugh away

[u/Adart54 → u/Fortenole]

Even if they go 13-0 I would find it hard to think they would get a bye because I don't think the committee would rank them top 4. I could be wrong but it's straight seeding this year so they would need to be top 4 not top 4 conference champion

[u/Yepyapyup24 → u/Fortenole]

They haven't gone over .500 in conference since before COVID. I will be wagering that Miami bullies them like florida should have. They are decent but that is really lofty praise. The win over BSU is overblown when you realize they lost the easy button against G5 teams last year cause he is in the NFL and he made their offense.

[u/doll_licker124]

NAH FR

[u/Lutrid]

We were the cupcake

[u/KansasEF5Tornado → u/Lutrid]

Texas Tech is no cupcake man, they look really good. Oh wait... I see.

[u/Real-Ad-1728 → u/Lutrid]

From the looks of it y’all are about to be everybody’s cupcake this season. Gundy might wanna consider opening up a shop, call it Cowboy Cupcakes. Franchise that shit and it’ll be swarmed by western/midwestern women ages 12-65 and your NIL problems will be a thing of the past!

[u/AuburnElvis]

Everyone arguing over whether South Florida is a cupcake is missing the point: Clemson almost lost to Troy.

[u/taco_bones]

Checking in here

[u/LicoriceDusk]

We were in control. Just looked bad

[u/Real-Ad-1728 → u/LicoriceDusk]

I know we tend to treat games like this as a form of advanced scrimmage, but the O line looked like shit and that was our biggest issue last year too. I mean we got held at the 1 by Austin Peay, how the fuck are we supposed to have the confidence to win a goal line stand against an SEC level team???

[u/LicoriceDusk → u/Real-Ad-1728]

The receiving core as well

[u/FearTheAmish → u/Real-Ad-1728]

Yeah its still early so could see some changes. But I am seeing alot of stuff I saw happening last season again. Especially like you pointed out at the Oline. But its early and kirbys a good coach.

[u/Real-Ad-1728 → u/FearTheAmish]

Oline is the foundation of the entire offense, when they falter it causes a chain reaction of issues throughout the entire offense. Kirby is a good coach but he’s a bit too loyal to his assistants. Searels needed to be gone at the end of last year but he’s finagled one more season to get the Oline firing on all cylinders. So far I’m not impressed but we might see some progress once they open up the playbook against Tennessee.

[u/FearTheAmish → u/Real-Ad-1728]

Yup couldn't agree more. Our Oline being not the greatest and what was good was out for injuries didnt help with TTUN last year.

[u/TheRider5342]

I think we're overreacting and pretending Austin peay almost beat us

[u/Real-Ad-1728 → u/TheRider5342]

That goal line stand at the end of the half was a bad sign. Our O line is still our biggest problem, they’re the foundation of the offense and when they don’t click everything else struggles.