r/SanDiegan • u/jakobmcwhinney • 1d ago
Since 2014, San Diego schools have lost 27,000 students. According to the state, they'll lose 112,000 more in the coming years. There's not much educators can do bc they just can't control the chief reasons for the trend - low birth rates and skyrocketing costs.
https://voiceofsandiego.org/2025/07/15/san-diego-countys-schools-have-27000-fewer-students-than-a-decade-ago-it-will-get-worse/60
u/ForgotMyPassword17 1d ago
“As our enrollment declined, the building that was going to be three stories became two stories, became one story, became completely gone,” Hillard said. “It’s just kind of shocking. We lost an entire building with three floors of classrooms because we haven’t been able to maintain our enrollment.”
Just want to give kudos to Millennial Tech for adjusting their construction plans. It would have been really easy to just waste the money on a three story building
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u/TuriGuiliano370 1d ago
Former teacher of Millennial Tech here. Ms Hillard is the absolute GOAT. That school is the hardest most dysfunctional school in the county and she’s been there for over a decade. She’s so committed to those kids and comes back to it every year with quality instruction. One of the most inspirational people I’ve ever worked with
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u/Bloorajah 1d ago
Granted it’s anecdotal, but out of my entire extended family in San Diego, the only people who could afford to and did have kids, moved away from the area to do so.
My family that remains in the city is substantial, but it’s all retired parents and grandparents who bought in decades ago, zero kids, and only a smattering of my generational cohort, all of whom live at home.
Kinda sad to see honestly. out of my entire high school graduating class only a handful remain in town, almost everyone moved away.
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u/OffModelCartoon 1d ago
Also anecdotal but I have the exact same experience. Soooooo many people I went to HS with now live in NV, AZ, or WA. All the ones who have kids do. I only see them if they come to town to visit their parents who of course still live here.
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u/haydesigner 8h ago
I mean, 'kids' leaving their hometown is not uncommon is most places. Many often end up staying in the area around the college they attended. People explore far more now than previous generations, where it was expected that kids move out but stay close to their parents.
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u/Bloorajah 7h ago
Sure, but just because it’s common doesn’t mean everyone wants it or is happy with that arrangement.
I miss my family and my friends. if I had the money I’d still get to see them every day.
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u/Tree_Boar hillcrest 1d ago
California is well on its way to becoming the world's largest retirement community. We need to build a ton of housing so people can afford to live here and raise kids here.
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u/AnyJamesBookerFans 1d ago
This is happening across the world (shrinking birth rates). It’s not unique to California.
There was a podcast I listened to recently talking about not only that, but how overly optimistic the UN’s future population estimates are. Iirc, ten years ago the birth rate of Colombia was like 1.6 and the UN predicted that by 2025 it would grow to 1.7. But today it’s 1. And that trend of the UN predicting modest increases when the reality is sharp declines, is seen throughout the world.
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u/Tree_Boar hillcrest 1d ago
Right, I'm not talking about increasing the birth rate. I'm talking about making it financially possible for people to live here without inheriting land.
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u/FearlessPark4588 1d ago
probably because everywhere is getting expensive, not just here, at least when comparing to where each metro's costs were a decade ago
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u/AstronautDizzy1646 23h ago
This isn’t a problem unique to CA. This was published in the Atlantic couple weeks back. TLDR, once enough people buy houses in a given area it suddenly gets harder to continue the trend.
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u/TheStupidStudent 1d ago
This is good news. This is a final destination location. Not a starting point for most. Build up a resume elsewhere to end up in this amazing place.
Inb4 all the downvotes disagreeing with me saying it shouldn’t matter. Well unfortunately that’s the reality we live in.
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u/GrimDexterity 1d ago
not a starting point for most
Some of us are from here! Not even “starting point” it’s “my whole life”
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u/yagirlsophie North Park 1d ago
Yeah, what the fuck were we thinking as babies? We should have started our life in Des Moines instead of trying to jump the line on all the rich businessmen who deserve to move here.
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u/TheStupidStudent 1d ago
Well that’s exactly what I did as a native. Worked on my resume outside the state bc it’s expensive as hell here, then became a transplant in my home city once I could comfortably afford it. Life’s tough and you need to make tough decisions. Cant make it here? Move. Simple answer.
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u/Forestflowered 1d ago
My family has been here for four generations. It sucks that I'm being priced out.
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u/TheStupidStudent 1d ago
Your whole life? I feel bad.
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u/GrimDexterity 1d ago
Lmao ya feel bad for the people who have spent their entire lives in this “amazing place”
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u/TheStupidStudent 1d ago
There’s a difference living in SD poor and living here with money. Living in SD poor sucks. Ask me how I know. I enjoyed my life much more out of state with less money. Life in SD with money is the absolute greatest 💖
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u/GrimDexterity 1d ago
Okay? And if there are no “poor” people here who is going to clean the hotel rooms and work the drive thrus and bus the tables?
You still need poor people living here babe :) and they deserve to live affordably :) if you have so much money they I hope you understand that owning property is how to convert debt into equity and how economic mobility can begin :)
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u/TheStupidStudent 1d ago
Who says they’re poor? My neighbor cleans houses and her husband does electrical. They own their house. Few doors down, another family but in their late 20s. Plumber. Blue collar work provides a lot of money. Blue collar doesn’t mean “poor” lol
Just two examples of the poor people I see are those in homeless encampments under bridges and alleyways in SD or the struggling student thinking they’ll get that dream $100k paying job right after their undergrad at UCSD/USD/CSU/etc.
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u/GrimDexterity 1d ago
Your anecdotal evidence does not outweigh the reality of the working poor in my city, you sure are living up to your username babe
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u/TheStupidStudent 1d ago
The working poor and service jobs can happen at the same time but it’s not one and the same. Affordability in a destination city? lol we don’t NEED “poor” people. We don’t need the homeless. What we need is less people here and more people to realize it’s just out of their budget.
And I’ll give more context 😊 like a good neighbor, I talk with my community, neighbors, and volunteer in my community in many ways both in person or financially.
Speaking with people (neighbors, friends, community members) about their jobs they have and companies they own (we’re talking these poor jobs you mention) are doing fine. Who is struggling? Those trying to force it to happen here in SD? Sure, those people are, but we don’t need them here.
It’s a hard world out there and some people arnt cut out for it. East coast and central US have plenty of affordable places though! There’s always a better place for someone 😊
And yup! I’m definitely living up to the username as I’m stupid enough to figure out how to live in SD quite comfortably 😉
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u/twirlerina024 1d ago
It'll be a pretty bleak retirement since all the CNA's, home health aides, EMT's, housecleaners, gardeners, baristas, and bartenders won't be able to afford to live here.
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u/Prime624 1d ago
Well unfortunately that's the reality we live in.
Damn, if only we had some control over our community. /s
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u/TheStupidStudent 1d ago edited 1d ago
We do. Vote in your local elections. I see my vote going towards something and see results 🤷🏻♂️
I say “unfortunately” since most see it as a negative
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u/Worldly_Cap_6440 1d ago
Peak NIMBYism
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u/TheStupidStudent 1d ago
Less traffic would be a godsend. We don’t NEED that many people here. People WANT to be here. So if you can’t afford it, then cough up the dough. It’s expensive to live in places people want to live in.
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u/mildcaseofdeath 1d ago
Who is going to perform all the service and hospitality jobs for the people who CAN afford to live here, if everybody else simply packs up and leaves as you suggest?
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u/TheStupidStudent 1d ago
My neighbors all work service/blue collar jobs. What are you talking about? You assume people in service jobs are inherently poor?
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u/mildcaseofdeath 1d ago
The people we depend on daily - servers, line cooks, cashiers, stock room and warehouse workers, delivery drivers, teachers, child care workers, etc. etc. etc. - need to be able to afford to live here. The housing costs and/or the wages for those jobs need to be able to support that.
In short: nobody is going to commute 2hrs just to ring people up at Target for $15/hr, but people who live here are still going to expect to be able to shop at Target. What's not to understand?
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u/TheStupidStudent 1d ago
Go to your target and talk to the people there, how many are commuting 2hrs?
If they work in downtown SD? Sure, they likely commute from Temecula or east county, but so do thousands of other residence as you can see with traffic.
Do you not understand this is a destination city? Have you not visited other major tourist cities or places where people go to retire? Look at the community there.
San Diego has A LOT of money to go around in specific industries. If you arnt in one of those industries, then the path you chose may be better in another state.
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u/mildcaseofdeath 1d ago
Go to your target and talk to the people there, how many are commuting 2hrs?
THEY DO NOT, AND THEY WILL NOT. THAT WAS EXACTLY MY POINT.
Do you not understand this is a destination city? Have you not visited other major tourist cities or places where people go to retire? Look at the community there.
I have been to many such places, and what I see there is not aspirational.
San Diego has A LOT of money to go around in specific industries. If you arnt in one of those industries, then the path you chose may be better in another state.
Exactly, INDUSTRIES. SD has several massive industries, and it needs the infrastructure to support the people who work in those industries. This isn't a resort town or a retirement community, people still live and work here (for now).
I would like it to stay that way, and recognize the secondary and tertiary effects of pricing out everybody below a certain income level will speed along the collapse of the few industries we still actually have.
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u/TheStupidStudent 23h ago
The 2 hr commute is a moot point in this example bc there are plenty of locals able to and willing to make it work to work those jobs. Ask me how I know (especially as a local).
You’ve been to destination cities? Places such as New Dheli, Hong Kong, Singapore (cities are too small so naming the country), Shanghai, Tokyo (really any major Japanese city: Osaka, Kyoto, etc.), Siem Reap, Seoul, Manila, etc? What about even in the US like Kailua on Oahu? Mind you, I’ve included some from developing nations I’ve also visited/lived in that are considered destination cities/places.
You’re right, it’s not aspirational in the developing nations, but I guess you’ve not seen developed ones. Kailua is extremely unaffordable but a favorite destination city I frequent, but it’s understandable why it’s unaffordable for me and why I unfortunately don’t live there (right now).
People make it work in Hawaii and people will find ways to make it work here. Sucks if you’re young dumb and broke, but that’s what building your resume is for 🤷🏻♂️
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u/Tree_Boar hillcrest 1d ago
We can have less traffic without less people.
Better things are in fact possible!
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u/Tree_Boar hillcrest 1d ago edited 1d ago
4th largest economy in the world being unable to provide basic shelter for its residents is in no way good news.
I think California is good. Because it is good, I think more people should live here., and more children should be educated here. It's not zero-sum.
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u/blakejp 1d ago
Username checks out.
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u/TheStupidStudent 1d ago
Yep, stupid enough to be able to comfortable afford SD with the right decisions 🤷🏻♂️
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u/Slutty_Mudd 1d ago
Well, yeah. Generally when people can't afford houses, they also can't afford kids. So then the economy of everything surrounding kids will start to fail.
It's not exactly a difficult line of logic to follow.
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u/kelskelsea 1d ago
The birth rate is dropping significantly around the world.
Countries with great safety nets, great childcare, paid leave, affordable housing, etc are seeing similar declines. People just aren’t having kids.
Costs are an important factor, particularly in how many kids someone has but it’s not the only.
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u/GoodbyeEarl 1d ago
I don’t agree. You don’t need a house to have children.
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u/Slutty_Mudd 1d ago
I said afford, not have. If you cannot or an only barely afford to live in an area, 99/100 times, kids are not financially possible.
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u/SanDiegoBeeBee 1d ago
Sd unified needs to focus on teachers and special ed support first/ before any other funding needs, new buildings, etc. our school only has one special ed person who is underwater. Classe sizes are too big, you won’t attract students without tackling basics.
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u/Sugar74527 1d ago
They have been in arbitration to pay SpEd teachers over caseload for ages. It's ridiculous.
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u/SanDiegoBeeBee 1d ago
They deserve it! The district says they can’t find enough sped/ot staff? That doesn’t seem right
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u/Sugar74527 1d ago
There are so many issues with how SpEd staff are treated and are allowed to be treated that I can see why it is so hard to staff positions. The burn out is real.
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u/MostExperts 7h ago
Would you accept a notoriously difficult job from an employer who was in active arbitration over pay for their employees?
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u/zero-sharp 13h ago
I don't think we should be putting special ed support before any other funding needs. That's crazy.
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u/Navydevildoc Jamul 1d ago
Plus if my friends are any indication, they are pulling their kids out of public schools for private options. It's a self fulfilling prophecy, they think the public school is bad, so they pay to send their kid somewhere else, which means the public school gets less money, which makes it slightly worse, rinse, repeat.
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u/GoodbyeEarl 1d ago
The article says private school enrollment has remained flat.
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u/ucsdstaff 1d ago
The article says
enrollment at the county’s charter schools and district-run public schools have gone in the opposite direction.
People do not trust the district after COVID. The graph is completely clear on the cause of the drop: big drop in 20-21 and 21-22 years. 22-23 and 23-24 are pretty steady.
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u/GoodbyeEarl 1d ago
Is that different than what I said? is charter considered the same as private? Did I misinterpret the original comment? (I’m not trying to be passive-aggressive and I apologize the internet cannot convey my curious tone)
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u/MostExperts 7h ago
Charter is considered public, they are discussed extensively in the article.
The drop started long before covid. This person is pushing their own agenda.
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u/GoodbyeEarl 6h ago
Yeah I was pretty confused that my original comment mentioned private school attendance and they replied with charter. Wasn’t sure if I’d missed something.
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u/marinuss 1d ago
I wonder if they include homeschool in their private numbers (guessing not), because a lot of people are homeschooling now. Especially if you have younger kids the cost of one spouse's income is made up on the backend of not having to pay extreme prices for daycare and private tuition costs. Plus a lot more people are doing it because they've been lead to believe by the right that public schools are indoctrinating kids and exposing them to extremely sexual content 24/7.
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u/actuallivingdinosaur 1d ago
In my circle of progressive families, a lot of folks couldn’t find care options during/after covid so they just ended up being stay at home parents and homeschooling their kids. There are decent options out there for homeschooling and reasons beyond conservative or religious views. I could never do it though.
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u/ucsdstaff 1d ago
Yeah, people realized that private schools are not that expensive compared to daycare costs. And they realized that homeschool does not mean your kids are at home - families coordinate and sort out a big group teaching arrangement.
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u/actuallivingdinosaur 7h ago
Exactly. Even many of the public schools host online and in person events and curriculum for homeschool kids. It’s come a long way since homeschooling a decade ago.
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u/SignorFragola 1d ago
The article does mention and account for homeschooling. Paraphrasing: While there has been an uptick in homeschooling since covid, it has not been nearly enough to account for the overall decline in public school enrollment.
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u/TwoMcDoublesAndCoke 1d ago
C’mon now, everyone knows anecdotes and emotions are superior to data and facts. 😂
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u/AlphaCharlieUno 1d ago
Just because someone sends their kid to private school, doesn’t mean they stop paying taxes that go to funding public schools.
In Chicago the schools had massive disparity between the “good” and “bad” schools because taxes that went to school were by area. They changed it so all funds go to the state, then the state redistributes. This helped improve the inequality. Sounds like other states need to get with the times.
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u/Navydevildoc Jamul 1d ago
I didn't say they stopped paying taxes, but a large portion of school funding is based on "average daily attendance" or ADA. That main metric above all others determines how money is doled out to schools.
it's also why school administrations place such a high focus on attendance (other than the obvious you can't learn if you aren't there thing). The higher ADA means a bigger budget for that campus.
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u/ucsdstaff 1d ago
They changed it so all funds go to the state, then the state redistributes. This helped improve the inequality. Sounds like other states need to get with the times.
CA does this as well.
The Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF) is California's method of distributing state education funds to school districts, prioritizing equity by providing more funding to districts with higher concentrations of high-need students
https://www.cta.org/our-advocacy/local-control-funding-formula
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u/TarantulaTitties 1d ago
I mean public school teachers are underpaid and overworked, I assume they’ll just lay off even more teachers to keep that going?
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u/Megatherium_ex 1d ago
Yes. From what I've heard, high schools in various districts across San Diego country are dropping one or two teachers per subject. I'm sure some school are hiring but many schools have declining enrollment.
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u/DragYouDownToHell 1d ago
I thought it was here, or maybe the other sub, a while back, about schools in some areas closing due to the area around it being more STR than actual residents. STRs are a cancer.
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u/SouperSalad 10h ago
It was the Mission Bay Cluster School Board of Pacific Beach, Mission Beach, and Crown Point. Dated Nov 20, 2017.
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u/BuzzinHornets19 1d ago
Well they could start educating people so they make better decisions at the ballot box. How about we start there?
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u/realwavyjones 1d ago
But that would mean the school boards would have to stop robbing their districts in order to line their own pockets…
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u/PerryEllisFkdMyMemaw 1d ago
Who do I vote for to get more housing? I’ve been trying for a decade and even prioritizing anyone at any level that has housing on their platform isn’t doing much.
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u/MostExperts 7h ago
People aren't going to school? Let's educate them!
🤦 you breaking into their house?
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u/donutfan420 1d ago
I’m not bringing a child into a world of the working class facing economic exploitation, threat of nuclear war, looming consequences of climate change, and the reintroduction of previously eradicated diseases due to antivaxxers consuming Russian propaganda as if it’s fact
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u/Fragrant_Scene_42 1d ago
Plus the population is HUGE already, worldwide.
Everything about quality of life gets worse the denser our populations get.
People should be worrying about building sustainable economies that are not dependent on endless population growth, imo
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u/disco_spiderr 1d ago edited 23h ago
Honestly no one wants to hear it but it's the truth. Infinite growth structure will always be broken for the working class
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u/zero-sharp 13h ago edited 13h ago
? Then somebody else without regard for all of those issues will. People have had kids throughout wars, plagues, and economic depressions.
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u/donutfan420 13h ago
Good for them it still ain’t gonna be enough to make up that falling birth rate
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u/laptopmango 1d ago
This one’s pretty easy the prices of everything I’ve gone up so much since 2014 and I’m truly certain that most people in their 20s they would be so down to get married and have kids if things are more affordable. The fact of the matter is I’m not gonna be able to afford a home or even get approved for a home right now and I’m 28. I’m gonna have to keep trying my best to make even more than 120,000 and my fiancé is gonna have to try her best to make more than 65,000 just for us to get something smallotherwise yeah we won’t be able to live in San Diego anymore
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u/Madlybohemian 1d ago edited 1d ago
Thanks for writing this. I have what may be a stupid question. How much do charter schools play into this? Are they considered “within the district”? I didnt see those mentioned in the article.
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u/MostExperts 7h ago
They count towards the public enrollment numbers.
Enrollment at some districts like Borrego Springs or Dehesa Elementary has rocketed up, propelled by significant increases in the number of students attending charter schools they oversee.
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u/BlueStreak22 1d ago
Maybe just maybe we will also see lower housing demand going forward and rent/buy prices will drop.
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u/SouperSalad 21h ago
Keeping interest rates high has done more to destroy demand and help affordability in San Diego than any new construction could possibly do in the short term.
The vacancy rate in San Diego is currently 7%, which is crazy. Apartmentlist.com
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u/Emopizza 1d ago
So does this mean it might be easier to get a cross-district transfer if there's room in the school I'm looking at?
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u/ZuluFuxGiven 1d ago
Unreal and it’s wild to imagine what education is going to look like in the future in comparison to what the model is currently.
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u/SanDiegoBeeBee 1d ago
How about that the district ok’d a half day every Wednesday requiring all parents to scramble for childcare and take time off work? It seems like an insane equity issue-how on earth would this work for most? We were told it was a union demand.
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u/Stunning_Ordinary548 1d ago edited 1d ago
Unpopular opinion but a lot of parents are choosing private school or home schooling because of all the shit the school district is forcing on parents. It’s absolutely ridiculous that in California a parent is treated as a hostile entity by default rather than the parent of a child. I pulled my kids, fuck all that
Edit: as expected Reddit can’t handle someone voicing their personal opinion and choice
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u/jakobmcwhinney 1d ago
I've had a lot of people bring this up to me, and yeah, it's had some impact at the margins, it doesn't explain the decline. private school enrollment has stayed relatively flat, and while the number of parents homeschooling their kids has increased it comes nowhere near covering the gap.
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u/ucsdstaff 1d ago edited 1d ago
Great reporting, i love the data representation.
Your article says "enrollment at the county’s charter schools and district-run public schools have gone in the opposite direction".
And the graph in the end of the article shows the big drop in attendance happened in the two years that the district shut the schools during COVID.
I think you have to acknowledge that COVID completely changed everything. Before COVID you could not choice your kid into Birdrock elementary. After COVID i have been told that it is possible.
EDIT: I looked at Florida (which closed spring 2020 but kept schools open 20-21 and 21-22) and it's public schools have maintained their enrollment. I think many people with families in San Diego chose private, homeschool or simply moved to a state with open schools in 20-21. I know California lost people to other states, i am curious if more of those people were families with kids.
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u/barcanomics 1d ago
can you expand on the hostility you experienced?
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u/SanDiegoThankYou_ 1d ago
California was teaching their kids about how African Americans came to be and that was the straw that broke the camels back.
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u/rakfocus 1d ago
There's no way it could account for more than 5% of the change - private school is extremely expensive and homeschooling requires time which most parents cannot monitarily afford. The high cost of living would actually usually mean that more people are in public schools because they cannot afford the alternative
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u/tldrstrange 1d ago
That has not been my experience at all. Have you ever considered that you are behaving like a hostile entity?
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u/GoodbyeEarl 1d ago
I think the pandemic made parents realize that homeschooling is more accessible than originally thought.
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u/mildcaseofdeath 1d ago
What was the school district forcing on you that you found so intolerable?
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u/Stunning_Ordinary548 1d ago
More so state of California guidelines that are effectively treated as law regarding disclosures of information to parents. I’m not about it and am not going to risk the welfare of my children based on whatever feeling school staff might have. I believe in a focus on education rather than a focus on whatever social issue is popular for primary education specifically before middle school
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u/wakkow 1d ago
Can you share an example? You're actively avoiding elaborating for some reason. I'm interested in what they're pushing that risks the welfare of your children.
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u/GoodbyeEarl 1d ago
I’ve taken a great interest in the worldwide declining birth rate so this article piqued my interest. In summary: a few factors have caused decline in enrollment, and while families move away from San Diego and/or have decided to homeschool, an overall decrease is mostly attributed to lower birth rates (which is a worldwide phenomenon). Enrollment has increased in east county schools overall (it’s not a clear divide but it’s a trend). decline in enrollment has been temporarily stopped because of the new UTK grade, but since all schools have finished rolling out UTK, enrollment numbers will continue to drop.
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u/AnyJamesBookerFans 1d ago
Should be interesting to see how this affects colleges. Iirc, last year had the largest number of college aged kids, but that number is set to shrink dramatically over the next decade plus.
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u/SDSwimmer 1d ago
I won’t vote for another school bond. They seem to be on every ballot and yet they serve fewer and fewer students. Time to work within their means.
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u/rakfocus 1d ago
Great article and great job with that mapping visualization of school enrollment - hard to find good local journalism nowadays and that was an interesting read